Introduction and Market Overview
Poland is the largest real estate market in Central and Eastern Europe, underpinned by a robust economy and consistent growth. In 2024, GDP rebounded strongly – well above the EU average – and is projected to grow ~3.4% annually in 2025–2026 ey.com nordlb.com. This economic strength, paired with low unemployment and rising incomes, has sustained demand across residential, commercial, and industrial property segments. After a sharp slowdown in 2023 amid surging interest rates and geopolitical tensions, optimism returned in 2024: total investment transactions reached about €4.8–5.0 billion, more than double 2023’s volume ey.com property-forum.eu. The market’s recovery was driven by a “price correction” that attracted investors back with more favorable yields, alongside easing monetary policy in late 2024 linkedin.com. In the following sections, we examine each major sector – residential, commercial (office and retail), and industrial – along with key trends, regional patterns, the rental market, investor activity, and regulatory influences shaping Poland’s real estate landscape.
Residential Real Estate Market
Price Trends and Recent Developments
Poland’s housing market experienced a remarkable price surge in recent years, now transitioning into a period of moderation. Between Q2 2022 and Q2 2024, Polish house prices jumped nearly 26%, the fastest growth in the EU (for comparison, many Western European markets saw flat or negative changes) eznewswire.com. This boom was fueled by strong post-pandemic demand, high inflation in construction costs, and government stimulus – notably the “Safe 2%” subsidized mortgage program in 2023, which enabled first-time buyers to borrow at 2% interest and spurred a buying frenzy globalpropertyguide.com pewnylokal.pl. However, as that program wound down and interest rates remained elevated, price growth has cooled. In the first quarter of 2024, the average price of existing homes in Poland’s seven largest cities was PLN 13,404/m² (≈USD 3,463) – up 8.1% year-on-year, a much slower rise than earlier globalpropertyguide.com. New developer-built units averaged slightly higher at PLN 14,265/m², with a modest 4.4% annual increase globalpropertyguide.com. This deceleration marks a stabilization after the explosive gains of 2021–2022. Indeed, by late 2023 in Warsaw, prices plateaued after rapid climbs – the capital’s average new-build price (~PLN 16,000/m² in Oct 2023) was virtually unchanged month-to-month, though still ~18% higher than a year prior realting.com realting.com. Industry experts note that fading confidence in further government housing subsidies, coupled with high borrowing costs, has tempered the previously red-hot price momentum globalpropertyguide.com.
Despite the cooling trend, no significant price correction has occurred, and Polish housing remains a favored investment. Mortgage lending started to recover in 2024 as inflation and rates showed signs of easing – banks issued about PLN 83.9 billion in new housing loans in 2024, a 43% increase from the depressed 2023 level globalpropertyguide.com. Broad-based wage growth (often 10%+ annually in recent years) and chronic housing undersupply support a floor under prices. Would-be buyers who delayed purchases in 2022–2023 due to costly credit are gradually returning as interest rates inch down. The National Bank of Poland’s reference rate, which had peaked at 6.75% in 2022, was cut to 5.75% by end-2024 and stands at 5.25% as of mid-2025, with further easing expected tradingeconomics.com linkedin.com. Lower financing costs should improve affordability and demand. Indeed, new home sales are forecast to rebound by about 10–15% in 2024–2025 compared to the prior year ey.com. Analysts anticipate a slower, but still positive, trajectory for prices – essentially a soft landing. The EY real estate outlook expects “a slower pace of price growth on the residential market”going forward ey.com rather than any steep decline. This resilience reflects Poland’s solid economic fundamentals and the cultural preference for homeownership as a stable store of wealth.
Figure: Number of New Dwellings Sold in Poland (major urban markets). After peaking in 2021, new home sales fell sharply in 2022 amid tighter credit, partially rebounded in 2023, and dipped again in 2024 as interest rates remained high globalpropertyguide.com. 2025 has started slower, but demand is expected to stabilize with improving conditions globalpropertyguide.com. (Source: NBP/JLL data)
Regional Differences in Housing Prices
House prices vary significantly across Poland’s regions, with Warsaw and other large metros commanding the highest values. Warsaw is by far the most expensive market: as of late 2023, new apartments in the capital averaged around PLN 16,000 per square meter, and secondary-market flats about PLN 17,000/m² realting.com realting.com. By contrast, prices in other major cities are lower, though several have seen rapid growth catching up to Warsaw. Kraków, the second-largest market, now approaches Warsaw’s level – in Q3 2023, new apartments in Kraków averaged ~PLN 15,500/m² (and resale units even topped PLN 16,000) realting.com realting.com, after surging over 20% in the past two years. Wrocław and the Tri-City (Gdańsk–Gdynia–Sopot) cluster also saw steep climbs: by late 2023, new-build prices reached ~PLN 13,000/m² in Wrocław and ~PLN 14,300/m² in the Tri-City, with year-on-year gains around 15% realting.com realting.com. Even mid-sized regional cities have boomed – for example, Kraków recorded a 24.7%house price jump and Zielona Góra 21.6% over 2022–2024, reflecting robust demand beyond the capital eznewswire.com. Meanwhile, more affordable markets include Łódź, Poland’s third-largest city, where average prices are near PLN 10,000/m² pewnylokal.pl realting.com, and smaller cities in eastern Poland with prices often under PLN 8,000. The gap between Warsaw and the rest has narrowed somewhat as secondary cities appreciate quickly, though Warsaw (and to a degree Kraków) still carry a significant premium. Much of the recent growth in regional cities has been driven by local economic development and spillover demand – for instance, major IT/business services investments in Kraków and Poznań, and an influx of Ukrainian professionals and students boosting demand in cities like Wrocław and Lublin.
Importantly, inventory conditions differ by region. Warsaw’s market, while priciest, remains relatively liquid – it has the deepest pool of buyers and the shortest sales times in Poland globalpropertyguide.com. In Tri-City (the coastal Gdańsk area), healthy demand from both locals and foreigners (including buyers from Scandinavia) has kept the market balanced. On the other hand, some cities are facing oversupply in the new-build segment: Kraków and Wrocław have seen a rising stock of unsold developer units, now comparable to Poznań’s more sluggish market globalpropertyguide.com. In Łódź, the situation is most challenging – at current sales pace it would take over two years to absorb the unsold homes, the longest in Poland globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. These regional disparities mean price trends going forward may diverge: markets like Warsaw with limited new supply may hold firm or rise slightly, whereas cities with excess inventory could see increased developer discounts or flat prices until the glut clears. Nevertheless, broad declines are not expected; even in softer markets, developers have mostly been postponing projects rather than dramatically cutting prices, aiming to maintain margins pewnylokal.pl.
Rental Market Dynamics and Yields
Poland’s residential rental market has been experiencing moderate growth and a gradual return to equilibrium after a period of volatility. In the wake of several shocks – the pandemic, a spike in inflation, and the massive influx of refugees from Ukraine in 2022 – rents surged sharply. However, rental inflation is now easing. As of April 2025, actual housing rents (as measured by the consumer price index) were up 4.2% year-on-year, down from about 5.4% a year prior and essentially in line with overall inflation globalpropertyguide.com. This indicates that rent rises have normalized to a sustainable pace after the double-digit jump seen in 2022–2023. Analysts attribute the cooldown to the “expiration of shocks” and an increase in supply: many factors that had driven rents up – COVID disruptions, rapid inflation, refugee emergency demand, and a housing boom – have abated globalpropertyguide.com. As Poland’s macroeconomic landscape stabilizes (inflation has fallen from ~15% in mid-2022 to ~6% in early 2024, and wage growth remains robust), the rental market is moving toward balance.
Regional rent differences remain pronounced. Warsaw commands the highest rents by far, followed by other large cities. The table below shows average asking rents in March 2025 for key cities:
| City | Avg. Monthly Rent (PLN) | Avg. Rent (USD) | YoY Change (Mar 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warsaw | 4,906 PLN | $1,268 | +0.3% |
| Kraków | 3,273 PLN | $846 | +3.7% |
| Łódź | 2,191 PLN | $566 | +3.9% |
| Wrocław | 3,057 PLN | $790 | +0.3% |
| Poznań | 2,564 PLN | $662 | +3.4% |
| Tri-City (Gdańsk/Gdynia/Sopot) | 3,164 PLN | $818 | +3.0% |
Source: Otodom rental report, March 2025 globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.
Warsaw’s average rent (~PLN 4,900, or $1,270) is more than double that of smaller regional cities like Kielce (around PLN 2,000) globalpropertyguide.com, reflecting the capital’s higher incomes and housing costs. Notably, rent growth over the past year was minimal in Warsaw and Wrocław (~0%–0.3% YoY), suggesting those markets had already seen large rent jumps earlier and are now pausing globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. In contrast, secondary cities such as Kraków, Łódź, and Poznań still showed moderate annual rent increases of 3–4% as of early 2025 globalpropertyguide.com. Overall, conditions point to a healthier equilibrium: supply of rentals has increased (more landlords listing properties, including units purchased during the recent boom and new flats coming onto the market), while demand – bolstered by young professionals and students flocking to cities – remains high globalpropertyguide.com. Vacancy rates in the private rental segment are low, but tenants now have a bit more choice than a year ago. Market experts note that “the rental market in Poland is gradually moving to balance,” with steady rent upticks and more listings to meet still-elevated demand globalpropertyguide.com. The frenetic spikes seen in 2022 (when hundreds of thousands of war refugees competed for apartments) have subsided; many refugees have since integrated or moved on, and new rental supply (including renovated units and some institutional rentals) has entered the market.
Rental investment yields in Poland are relatively attractive. As of early 2025, gross rental yields on apartments average around 6.1%, a slight uptick from ~6.0% in late 2024 globalpropertyguide.com. Yields have improved as rents rose faster than sale prices in the past year. Among major cities, yields are highest in markets with lower purchase prices: for instance, Bydgoszcz offers an average gross yield of ~6.65%, and even Warsaw’s yield is a strong 6.5% despite its high prices globalpropertyguide.com. Coastal Gdańsk also sees above-average yields (~6.3%). The lowest yields were observed in Poznań (~5.4%), where property values relative to rents are higher globalpropertyguide.com. These figures underscore that Polish residential investments can generate better rental returns than many Western European capitals (where yields of 3–4% are common), though of course with commensurate risk. Institutional investors have taken note: the Private Rented Sector (PRS) – virtually non-existent a few years ago – is expanding rapidly. Today, professionally managed PRS accounts for <1% of Poland’s ~4.5 million rental units ey.com, but growing fast. A recent Cushman & Wakefield study estimated that institutional landlords control over 21,000 rental apartments (in large cities, ~39% of them in Warsaw) and have another 25,000 units in the pipeline via announced projects globalpropertyguide.com. Developers increasingly explore build-to-rent: some residential developers are selling entire new blocks to investment funds instead of individual buyers linkedin.com linkedin.com. This trend is expected to continue, especially as high interest rates in 2023–24 made buy-to-let less accessible to small investors, leaving room for well-capitalized funds. In addition, conversion of other property types to rentals is underway – e.g. older offices or hostels being converted into apartments and student housing ey.com ey.com. On the tenant side, Poland still has a high homeownership rate (around 87% of households are owner-occupiers), meaning only ~13% rent their home globalpropertyguide.com. This low rental ratio suggests significant room for growth in the rental sector. With urbanization and migration (including an estimated 1.5 million Ukrainians now residing in Poland) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com, demand for rentals should remain robust. In summary, the rental market is strengthening in a sustainable way: rents are rising moderately, yields are competitive, and institutional investment is bringing new supply and professionalism, all of which point to a maturing sector.
Commercial Real Estate Market
Office Sector
Poland’s office market proved resilient through the pandemic and is now at an inflection point characterized by limited new supply and a flight to quality. Warsaw, with over 6 million m² of office stock, is the bellwether. After a COVID-era spike, vacancies have started to edge down thanks to strong tenant absorption and virtually no new deliveries in recent quarters. By Q4 2024, the overall office vacancy rate in Warsaw was about 10.6%, roughly flat from a year earlier polandoffices.com. Importantly, there is a stark divergence between locations: in the City Centre (prime central zones), vacancies dropped to only 7.4% by early 2025 polandinsight.com, indicating high demand for quality space in core areas. Meanwhile non-central business districts and older office parks still have double-digit vacancies (~13% outside the center in Warsaw) europaproperty.com. This reflects a broader trend: tenants are “returning to the center”and favoring newer, high-specification buildings that meet ESG and employee expectations, while secondary offices (especially those with outdated standards or in peripheral locations) struggle to retain occupiers. The rise of hybrid work has led many companies to consolidate or slightly downsize space, but they often seek better quality over quantity. As a result, prime headline rents in Warsaw’s CBD have held firm (around €25–€27/m²/month for top towers), and landlords of Class B buildings offer more incentives to fill space. Regional office hubs – Kraków, Wrocław, Tri-City, Katowice, Poznań, Łódź – also saw vacancy rates in the 12–16% range in 2023, with modern buildings outperforming older stock.
On the supply side, Poland is entering a cyclical lull. Developers largely paused new office projects amid 2020–2022 uncertainty and high financing costs; today, the development pipeline is very thin. Warsaw added only ~55,000 m² of new offices in all of 2024 (a record low), and 2025 will likewise see constrained supply polandinsight.com. Outside Warsaw, a few projects are completing (for example, in Kraków and Katowice), but many planned towers have been postponed until pre-leases justify construction. This lack of new supply, combined with steady demand, is gradually tightening the market. In Warsaw, the total vacant space (~680,000 m² in mid-2024) was actually declining quarter-on-quarter pdf.euro.savills.co.uk. Market analysts note it is “difficult to agree with the statement that the Warsaw office market suffers from a lack of space” given a 10% vacancy, but clearly the best space is being absorbed and no glut is forthcoming realestate.bnpparibas.pl property-forum.eu. The limited construction today could even lead to supply shortages in prime locations by 2025–2026, potentially giving landlords more leverage.
Investment activity in the office sector rebounded strongly in 2024. Investors took advantage of softened prices – yields moved out to more attractive levels (~5.50%–6.00% for prime Warsaw offices, up from ~4.75% two years ago) – to acquire high-quality buildings. Office transactions totaled €1.64 billion in 2024, a fourfold increase from 2023 property-forum.eu. Notable deals included the sale of the 2021-built Warsaw Unit skyscraper to Sweden’s Eastnine AB, and two office campus sales by developer Skanska: the P180 office in Warsaw and the Studio building, acquired by Czech and Swedish investors linkedin.com. These large transactions demonstrate renewed confidence, although the buyer pool remains more limited than in the pre-pandemic era linkedin.com. Many core institutional investors are selective, focusing only on prime assets with strong tenants. Local capital has also played a growing role – Polish private investors and opportunistic funds snapped up some older offices at discounted prices, eyeing conversions to alternative uses (such as student housing or residential) linkedin.com. With new office construction cautious, existing buildings with high vacancy can be candidates for repurposing. Looking ahead, sentiment for offices is cautiously optimistic. Vacancy in Warsaw is expected to trend down gently, and no major oversupply looms. Demand is gradually improving as companies expand again – for instance, tech and business services firms are once more leasing significant spaces in Kraków and Wrocław after a pause. The key challenge for landlords will be meeting modern standards: sustainability (energy efficiency, green certifications) and amenities are increasingly prerequisites for tenants linkedin.com. Older buildings may require retrofits or face obsolescence. Overall, Poland’s office market in the next 1–3 years should see a “gradual return of capital” and stable performance, especially if interest rate cuts materialize in 2025 linkedin.com.
Retail Sector
Poland’s retail real estate sector has navigated a post-pandemic recovery and remains one of Central Europe’s most dynamic retail markets. 2024 marked a rebound in retail investment and a continued evolution in formats. Shopping centre footfall and sales bounced back close to 2019 levels after all COVID restrictions were lifted – Polish consumers returned enthusiastically to malls, and retail sales growth (though dampened by high inflation) remained positive. By 2024, “retail sales recovered noticeably” after a dip in 2023 nordlb.com. Importantly, Poland’s consumer market still has significant upside: even after years of growth, per capita retail purchasing power is well below the Western European average, leaving room for expansion as the economy grows nordlb.com. Indeed, international retailers continue to enter or expand in Poland, attracted by a large population (38 million), rising wages, and relatively low retail space saturation in some segments. At the same time, e-commerce, which surged to ~10–12% of retail sales, has stabilized in growth – physical stores remain crucial, especially outside major cities.
In terms of property types, retail parks and convenience centers have been standout performers. During the pandemic, smaller open-air retail parks (often anchored by grocery and DIY stores) proved resilient and have since attracted investors and developers. Numerous deals in 2024 involved portfolios of retail parks across regional cities, with a mix of international, CEE, and local capital purchasing these income-stable assets linkedin.com linkedin.com. Meanwhile, large shopping malls have also regained investor favor after a period of caution. The year 2024 saw two of Poland’s biggest mall transactions ever: Magnolia Park in Wrocław sold for €373 million, and Silesia City Center in Katowice sold for €405 million – both acquired by NEPI Rockcastle, a major South African retail property investor linkedin.com. Another major deal was the sale of a portfolio of shopping centers by Cromwell, indicating that high-value retail assets are back in play property-forum.eu. These four high-value retail transactions were key drivers of the year’s investment surge property-forum.eu. Prime shopping centre yields have moved outward (now roughly ~6.0%+), making acquisitions more attractive, especially as retail rents have proven stickier than some feared in 2020. Rents for prime malls in Warsaw and other large cities have largely rebounded, and vacancy rates in top-tier centers are low (often under 3-5%). Secondary malls in smaller cities face more pressure, but even there, tenant demand for good locations persists.
A notable trend is the divergence within retail: on one end, high-footfall mega malls and outlet centers are performing well; on the other, aging centers in saturated markets are being repositioned or may eventually be redeveloped (for example, some weaker malls are candidates for conversion into mixed-use or last-mile logistics hubs). The retail park segment continues to expand supply – developers like Trei, Immofinanz, and Echo Investment have been building small parks in towns of 20–50k residents, where modern retail was scarce. Supermarkets and discount grocery chains (Biedronka, Lidl, etc.) also continue rapid expansion, often anchoring those new projects. Additionally, urban high streets in Warsaw and Kraków have revived as tourism returned in 2022–2023; luxury brands and food & beverage operators are expanding again in prime city-center locations (with Warsaw’s Nowy Świat and Kraków’s Old Town seeing renewed leasing interest).
From an investor perspective, Poland’s retail real estate in 2024 was the co-leading sector (tied with offices) – each made up roughly 32% of the €5+ billion commercial property investment volume property-forum.eu. This is a remarkable comeback considering retail investment had languished in 2020–2022. The presence of seasoned investors like NEPI Rockcastle, MAS Real Estate, and EPP (which is co-owned by Redefine of South Africa) underscores confidence in Polish retail’s long-term prospects. Retail rents have the potential to grow in coming years, supported by economic growth and limited new mall supply (very few new large malls are being built – most projects are smaller scale). One watchpoint is consumer spending: high inflation (which hit 15% in 2022 and ~8% in 2023) eroded household purchasing power, but inflation is now cooling and real wage growth is turning positive, which bodes well for retail sales. Another factor is e-commerce infrastructure – Poland’s online retail is growing but from a relatively low base, and many traditional retailers are adopting omnichannel models. Overall, the outlook for Polish retail real estate is cautiously positive: the country remains under-retailed in terms of modern formats per capita compared to Western Europe, and both national and foreign retailers are driving demand for quality space. Investors are increasingly selective (prime assets and grocery-anchored schemes are preferred), but 2024 proved that appetite exists when the price is right.
Industrial and Logistics Sector
The industrial and logistics real estate sector has been a star performer in Poland, bolstered by the country’s strategic location, booming e-commerce, and nearshoring trends. After two record-breaking years (2021–2022) of development and take-up, the market took a breather in 2023–2024 but remains very active. Total modern warehouse stock in Poland now exceeds 30 million m², making it the largest in CEE. Key logistics hubs have formed around Warsaw, Łódź (Central Poland), Upper Silesia (Katowice region), Poznań, Wrocław, and increasingly Western Poland (along the German border), as well as smaller clusters near seaports (Gdańsk) and the eastern border (as Ukraine trade routes reconfigure).
Demand for industrial space is robust. In H1 2024, Poland saw 2.6 million m² of gross warehouse leasing, marking the third-best first half on record (only 2021 and 2022 were higher) jll.pl. Even as economic growth slowed, 2024 leasing remained buoyed by 1) the expansion of 3PL logistics operators and retailers (including supermarket chains needing more distribution centers), 2) manufacturing investments (from automotive to appliances) choosing Poland as a production base, and 3) some nearshoring shift of supply chains from Asia – Poland’s central location is attractive for serving the European market nordlb.com. E-commerce continues to be a key driver: online retail in Poland, which accelerated during the pandemic, requires extensive warehouse infrastructure for fulfillment. With giants like Amazon, Zalando, and local players expanding fulfillment centers, Poland’s “extremely fast-paced growth of online retail” has underpinned logistics demand nordlb.com. Additionally, foreign companies from Asia and the US have increased interest: Poland is seen as an ideal gateway for distributing goods to Western Europe, and as a relatively cost-effective manufacturing hub with EU access nordlb.com.
On the supply side, developers delivered new space at a high pace, though it has started to taper. In 2022, new completions hit an all-time high (over 4 million m² added). In H1 2024, about 1.6 million m² was delivered – a large amount, but actually a 37% drop from H1 2023, indicating that developers pulled back on speculative projects amid economic uncertainty jll.pl. Many projects that started in 2022 have finished, and fewer new constructions commenced in 2023 due to higher financing costs and a wait-and-see approach. As a result of this supply surge followed by a pause, the vacancy rate has ticked up. By mid-2024, overall warehouse vacancy in Poland stood at 8.1%, rising for the sixth consecutive quarter to its highest level in years jll.pl. This is still a moderate vacancy rate (considering many new buildings are in lease-up), but it represents a shift from the sub-5% ultra-tight market of 2021. Some markets, like Warsaw suburbs and Lower Silesia, saw a notable increase in empty space as big projects completed. However, much of the vacant space is “frictional” – new space awaiting tenants – and is expected to be absorbed given the steady demand. In fact, developers report that pre-lease rates have improved; projects underway in mid-2024 had an average pre-lease of ~55% nbp.pl, indicating that over half the space is secured by tenants before completion. Rent levels for warehouses have risen in the past two years (by 2024, prime headline rents reached €3.8–€4.5/m²/month in core locations, up around 15% from 2021), driven by higher construction costs and low vacancy. With vacancy now easing upward, rent growth may level off, but rents are not expected to drop significantly given inflationary pressures on operating costs and continued occupier interest.
Investor appetite for logistics properties remains high. In 2024, industrial/logistics assets accounted for 25% of Poland’s commercial real estate investment volume, attracting €1.26 billion in deals (up ~30% from 2023) property-forum.eu property-forum.eu. While this was a step down from the record-setting €2–3 billion invested annually during 2020–21, it is still a strong showing. Notably, U.S. investors were very active in Polish logistics in 2024, deploying over €350 million (nearly 28% of the sector’s total) property-forum.eu – examples include acquisitions by firms like Exeter, Hines, and Fortress. European capital (German, UK, French funds) also continues to seek Polish warehouses, and regional players are expanding via joint ventures. A headline transaction was the sale of the Diamond Business Park portfolio(with sites in Warsaw, Stryków and Gliwice) to a Czech fund, Investika, and its private equity partner – the largest warehouse deal of 2024 linkedin.com. This acquisition alone brought Investika’s Polish industrial assets to over 409,000 m² focusonbusiness.eu. Yields for prime logistics facilities have adjusted from historic lows – prime yields moved out to roughly 5.75–6.25% in 2023–24 (from ~4.25% at peak), enhancing the attractiveness of the sector for investors seeking income linkedin.com. Given the strong underlying demand drivers, many investors see Polish logistics as a long-term growth story. One emerging sub-sector is urban last-mile warehouses (smaller infill distribution centers near city limits), which are in demand from courier and grocery delivery firms and could command premium rents.
Looking ahead, Poland’s industrial real estate outlook remains bright, albeit with a watchful eye on vacancy. The country continues to be one of Europe’s fastest-growing logistics markets nordlb.com. Even as available space has increased (plateauing the ultra-low vacancy of prior years), developers are already planning the next wave of projects to cater to new entrants and expansion by existing tenants. For example, demand from Asian manufacturers is on the rise, and Poland is marketing itself as a viable alternative to locations in Asia or even Western Europe for production and distribution nordlb.com. The war in Ukraine, while tragic, has also led to some manufacturers relocating operations from Ukraine or Russia into Poland. Additionally, reconstruction efforts in Ukraine in the coming years could position Poland as a staging ground for materials and goods, further boosting logistics needs. In sum, the industrial sector’s fundamentals – central location, improving infrastructure (new highways, rail cargo facilities), and strong tenant demand – should keep it resilient. Any softening in rents or occupancy in the short term due to the recent supply influx is likely to be temporary. As one report noted, “Poland’s logistics real estate market is proving to be extremely resilient”, underpinned by structural drivers like e-commerce and nearshoring that remain intact nordlb.com.
Investment Trends and Major Market Players
Investment volumes in Polish real estate have fluctuated with global capital trends, but 2024 marked a clear resurgence. Total commercial real estate investment exceeded €5.0 billion in 2024, up ~130% year-on-year and nearly back to the five-year average of ~€5.3B property-forum.eu nordlb.com. All major asset classes saw increased investor activity. Offices and retail were the top-performing sectors by volume (each about 32% of the total) while industrial took a 25% share and alternative sectors (mainly PRS housing and hotels) around 10% property-forum.eu property-forum.eu. Notably, just a few large transactions accounted for a substantial portion of the rebound – including two flagship mall sales and a marquee office sale (Warsaw Unit) as discussed. This suggests that while liquidity returned, it was concentrated in prime, big-ticket assets where buyers found value after prices adjusted. Indeed, yields on prime properties expanded by 50–150 bps across sectors from their pre-2022 lows, constituting a “market correction” that enabled investors to re-enter at attractive pricing linkedin.com. For example, prime office yields moved to ~5.5%, shopping center yields ~6%, and logistics to ~6% (from sub-5% levels previously), resulting in higher income returns for investors linkedin.com. Additionally, euro-zone interest rate cuts in late 2024 improved sentiment and debt financing conditions linkedin.com.
The mix of investors in Poland is diverse. In 2024, European investors (especially from Germany, Austria, Sweden, Czechia, and the UK) accounted for the largest share – about 60% of transaction volume nordlb.com. For instance, German institutional funds and French asset managers have been active in office and logistics deals. There is also a growing presence of North American and Asian capital: U.S.-based private equity firms significantly increased acquisitions (particularly in industrial) property-forum.eu, and investors from South Africa (e.g. NEPI Rockcastle, Redefine) and the Middle East have stakes in retail and office portfolios. Regional (CEE) investors are making more plays too – Czech and Hungarian funds have acquired several Polish offices and parks. Meanwhile, domestic investors are playing a bigger role than before, though still a minority of volume. Polish real estate investment trusts (REITs) do not yet exist (legislation is in progress), but local insurance companies, banks, and high-net-worth individuals have been directly investing or partnering in deals. In 2024, local capital sought “value-add” opportunities, such as buying distressed office assets or smaller retail centers for redevelopment linkedin.com. An anticipated Polish REIT regime (SINN) is under discussion for 2025 ey.com, which could unlock more domestic institutional capital into income-producing real estate if enacted.
Regarding major market players, Poland hosts a mix of local and international developers and funds:
- Top Developers (Residential): The residential development sector is led by companies like Dom Development, Robyg, Develia, and Atal. Dom Development Capital Group is the largest by revenue – in 2023 it was Poland’s #1 developer with ~PLN 1.85 billion revenue (20% ahead of the next competitor) scribd.com scribd.com. Dom Dev also leads in units sold in key markets (e.g. nearly 1,800 units in Warsaw in 2024) scribd.com. Robyg (now part of TAG Immobilien) and Develia are other nationwide players with thousands of units annually statista.com. These big developers focus on major cities and have weathered the recent slowdown relatively well (often by adjusting sales pace and product mix). Medium-sized and regional developers – e.g. Echo Investment (which straddles residential and commercial), Atal, Budimex Nieruchomości (recently acquired by CP Developer), Murapol, Archicom – also contribute significantly to housing supply. The market is somewhat fragmented (over 400 developers operate in Poland), but larger firms are gaining share, and consolidation is expected as smaller developers struggle with higher costs scribd.com scribd.com.
- Top Developers (Commercial): Poland’s commercial real estate has been shaped by major international developers. In the office sector, Skanska is a dominant force – the Swedish company has built numerous top-class office towers in Warsaw and regional cities (and was Europe’s #1 office developer by volume in recent years) realassets.ipe.com. Ghelamco, a Belgian developer, has delivered landmark projects like Warsaw Spire and Warsaw UNIT. HB Reavis (Slovakia) developed the iconic Varso Tower (tallest in the EU) in Warsaw. Local player Echo Investment is also a significant office developer (e.g. Browary Warszawskie project) and has a joint venture platform for office investments. In retail, firms like ECE and Unibail-Rodamco built many of the large malls; NEPI Rockcastle and ECE/OTCF manage some prime centers. Panattoni (US-based) has been the powerhouse of industrial development, accounting for a large share of warehouse construction across Poland. Other key industrial developers include Prologis, GLP, Segro, CTP and 7R (a domestic firm) – together they have propelled Poland to the top tier of logistics real estate in Europe.
- Active Investors/Funds: On the institutional investment side, a few names stand out. NEPI Rockcastle, listed in Johannesburg, is one of the largest retail landlords in Poland after its 2024 acquisitions linkedin.com. Investika(Czech Republic) has rapidly grown its Polish logistics portfolio focusonbusiness.eu. German open-ended funds (like Deka, Commerz Real, Union Investment) traditionally own several Polish offices and malls, though some paused activity recently. Allianz Real Estate and CFH/Foncière have holdings in Poland. Eastnine AB and Stena Real Estate from Sweden made notable office purchases in 2024 linkedin.com. CPI Property Group (Czech) became a major landlord by acquiring Immofinanz’s Polish assets in 2022–23, giving it a stake in offices and retail. On the domestic side, PZU (Poland’s largest insurer) and PKO BP (largest bank) both have real estate investment arms, typically focusing on core assets and financing development projects. The state-backed PFR Nieruchomościhas been active in rental housing initiatives (affordable and PRS segments). Furthermore, Griffin Real Estate, a Polish private equity platform, manages several property portfolios (e.g. Resi4Rent PRS platform in partnership with international investors). In sum, Poland’s real estate market features a healthy mix of global institutional capital and strong local developers/investors, which contributes to a competitive and well-capitalized industry.
Finally, one unique aspect is the growing foreign buyer interest in residential property. Beyond institutional investors, individual foreign buyers have become more prominent in Poland’s housing market. In certain new developments in 2024, over 30% of buyers were from abroad globalpropertyguide.com. The largest group by far are Ukrainian citizens, many of whom settled in Poland and are now buying homes (often for family reunification and long-term stay) globalpropertyguide.com. Belarusians are another notable group, alongside some buyers from Western Europe and Asia globalpropertyguide.com. Developers report a “clear upward trend” of foreign client interest, drawn by Poland’s economic stability and comparatively affordable prices globalpropertyguide.com. This influx of foreign demand is mostly concentrated in Warsaw and Kraków (and some high-end resort areas), and it provides an additional demand buffer, especially for higher-end apartments and suburban houses.
Economic and Policy Factors Influencing the Market
The trajectory of Poland’s real estate market in recent years has been tightly interwoven with economic conditions and government policy measures. A few key factors stand out:
- Monetary Policy and Financing Costs: The rapid rise in interest rates in 2022–2023 had a profound impact. To combat inflation, the National Bank of Poland hiked its benchmark rate from near-zero in early 2021 to 6.75% by mid-2022 – one of the fastest tightening cycles in the region. This sent mortgage interest rates into double digits, severely crimping affordability for homebuyers. Mortgage origination plummeted in 2022 as many potential buyers were priced out globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Developers slowed sales or offered their own financing incentives to sustain demand. Conversely, landlords of existing properties saw less forced selling than feared, partly thanks to a government-introduced “credit holidays” program that allowed distressed mortgage borrowers to suspend payments for up to 8 months in 2022–23, averting a spike in foreclosures. By late 2023, inflation showed signs of easing (down to ~7% CPI from a peak of ~18%), allowing the central bank to begin easing rates. It cut the reference rate to 6.0% in Q4 2023 and further to 5.25% by mid-2025 nbp.pl. This pivot has started to revive credit demand – as noted, 2024 saw a 43% jump in new housing loan volumes globalpropertyguide.com – and improved investor sentiment. The prospect of continued rate reductions (analysts foresee ~4.5% policy rate by end-2025) think.ing.com is a bullish sign for real estate, likely lowering financing costs and supporting property values.
- Government Housing Programs: Poland’s government has actively intervened in the housing market with subsidy programs in recent years. The “Mieszkanie bez wkładu własnego” (Housing without Down Payment) scheme was introduced in 2022 to guarantee loans for buyers without a full down payment, though uptake was limited. More impactful was the “Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%” (Safe 2% Credit) program launched in mid-2023 by the previous government. This program offered first-time buyers mortgages at a 2% interest rate (with the state covering the difference to market rates) for purchase of new or existing homes up to certain price caps. The effect was dramatic – pent-up demand was unleashed, especially among young buyers, boosting sales in H2 2023 and contributing to the late-2023 price spike globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Developers rushed to launch new projects to meet this subsidized demand globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. However, the program had a defined budget and effectively wound down by early 2024 amid political transitions. The new government (which took office in late 2023) has signaled a different approach: it announced a program called “Klucz do mieszkania” (“Key to Apartment”), aimed at supporting lower-income households in purchasing homes ey.com. This initiative plans to provide cheaper units or financing incentives but with strict price limits, which could particularly aid buyers in smaller cities ey.com. If implemented, it may shift demand toward the secondary market in less expensive areas, while having less effect in pricey markets like Warsaw (due to price caps) ey.com. Policymakers are trying to balance boosting housing accessibility with avoiding an overheated market. Past experience shows that while subsidies (like the 2% loans) can temporarily turbo-charge demand and prices, they may lead to volatility once withdrawn globalpropertyguide.com. The industry is thus cautiously watching the consistency of housing policy. Sudden changes – e.g. a proposed new tax on owners of multiple apartments, floated in 2023 – can also sway investor behavior (the mere discussion of a tax on third and subsequent flats caused some small investors to pause purchases) globalpropertyguide.com. For now, broad government support remains for improving housing supply and affordability, but execution details are evolving.
- Urban Planning and Land Supply: A significant regulatory reform underway is the overhaul of Poland’s spatial planning laws. An amendment to the Planning and Zoning Act requires all municipalities to adopt new “General Plans” by end of 2025 to guide land use ey.com. This reform (sometimes called the “urban planning revolution”) aims to modernize and clarify what can be built where, replacing outdated local plans. However, developers have raised concerns that the new plans might downzone or exclude many plots from development – particularly parcels currently lacking a local zoning plan could become ineligible for building after 2026 under stricter rules globalpropertyguide.com. In anticipation, many investors rushed to secure building permits before the new regulations hit. In fact, building permits issued jumped ~20.6% in 2024 (nearly 291,000 dwellings approved, a high number) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com as developers and landowners sought to lock in entitlements under existing rules. This flurry of permitting was also driven by a mid-2024 introduction of new technical standards (likely related to energy efficiency), prompting builders to apply under the old standards before they tightened globalpropertyguide.com. Experts note that permits in hand have become more valuable – some landowners with permits are sitting on them, “waiting for more favorable market conditions before building”, and the permitting process remains lengthy and challenging in many cities globalpropertyguide.com. The government is also working on a so-called “Supply Law” (ustawa podażowa) aimed at increasing the availability of land for housing construction ey.com. One proposal under this law is to release certain agricultural lands within city boundaries for residential development ey.com. If passed, this could alleviate land scarcity in fast-growing cities by unlocking new areas for projects. Overall, planning and land policy changes in the next 1–2 years will significantly shape the pipeline of future housing (and to some extent, commercial projects). Greater transparency and efficiency in planning (one goal of the reform) would benefit the market long-term, but in the short term these changes have added uncertainty and prompted a “now or never” rush for permits.
- New Development Act & Consumer Protection: In mid-2022, Poland implemented a New Developer Actstrengthening buyer protections in residential off-plan sales. It established a Developer Guarantee Fund (fundusz deweloperski) to secure buyer deposits in case a developer goes bankrupt or fails to complete a project ey.com. Developers now must contribute a small percentage of sales to this fund and meet stricter escrow requirements. While this increases costs slightly, it provides more security to homebuyers and is shaping market practices – for example, some smaller developers found it harder to comply, indirectly aiding consolidation by larger players. Additionally, since 2021 Poland has had onerous warranty laws requiring developers to fix defects for 5 years; the combination of these regulations means reputable developers with solid finances are at an advantage, while speculative players are being weeded out, enhancing overall market stability.
- Taxation Changes: Tax and fiscal policies also influence real estate. Starting January 1, 2025, significant amendments to real estate tax (RET) took effect ey.com. These changes include a new, autonomous definition of what constitutes a “building” or “structure” for tax purposes, independent of the construction law. The practical result is that certain facilities and property features that were previously not taxed might now fall under property tax. For example, some technical structures, infrastructure on a property, or unfinished buildings could become taxable where they weren’t before. This could increase the tax burden on property owners – a concern for developers and investors who must account for higher holding costs ey.com. Clarity on these definitions is still unfolding, and some owners may challenge new tax assessments. On a positive note, Poland continues to lack a nationwide property holding tax (aside from the low RET) – there is no annual wealth tax on real estate like some countries have introduced. However, a small “flipping tax” was introduced in 2022 to discourage very quick resales of apartments (properties resold within 6 months are subject to higher income tax), and there are ongoing discussions about taxing vacant units in cities to spur putting them on the market. No major changes to capital gains tax or rent income tax have occurred lately; rental income for individuals can be taxed at a flat 8.5% rate up to a threshold, which is relatively investor-friendly globalpropertyguide.com (there was a plan to eliminate this flat rate and tax all rental income at progressive rates, but it was shelved for now).
- Foreign Investment and Ownership Rules: Poland generally allows freehold property ownership by foreigners, especially those from the EU/EEA who face no restrictions. Non-EU nationals require a permit from the Interior Ministry to buy land or standalone houses, but this is usually a formality, and apartments in multi-family buildings are exempt from permits. These rules have not seen recent changes. What has changed is foreign investment sentiment – as noted, war in Ukraine and tensions with Russia initially spooked some investors in 2022, but many have since adapted. Geopolitical risk is still priced in to some extent (Poland offers higher yields partly for that reason), but the country’s NATO and EU membership provides reassurance. Strong FDI inflows (over €20 billion annually in manufacturing and services) continue to bolster real estate demand for production facilities and offices ey.com.
- ESG and Sustainability Regulations: Following EU directives, Poland is pushing for greener real estate. New buildings must meet increasingly strict energy efficiency standards (e.g. Poland adopted nearly NZEB – near zero energy building – requirements for new permits by 2021/2022). There is also discussion of mandating photovoltaic panels or green roofs on large new developments. The EU’s taxonomy and ESG reporting requirements are influencing investors – many now evaluate buildings on sustainability metrics (energy performance certificates, carbon footprint). This has sparked a wave of office refurbishments to improve energy efficiency and an emphasis on BREEAM/LEED certifications for new projects. While not a single policy, the overall ESG trend is a factor raising development and renovation costs but also future-proofing assets. As EY notes, “ESG criteria have taken on a central role in the Polish real estate sector,” with higher expectations from banks and investors for compliance nordlb.com nordlb.com. In the long run, buildings that incorporate eco-friendly solutions may enjoy higher demand and valuation, while non-compliant properties could face brown discounts or regulatory penalties (e.g. potential EU-level requirements to retrofit energy-inefficient buildings by certain deadlines).
In summary, a combination of macroeconomic policy (interest rates, credit measures) and targeted real estate regulations (planning law, developer law, subsidies) is shaping Poland’s market. The government is walking a fine line between encouraging development (through land supply initiatives and possibly REIT legislation) and protecting consumers (through stricter developer oversight and buyer programs). Economic factors like inflation and growth directly feed into real estate through construction costs and household incomes. As of 2025, the general climate is improving – inflation is down, rates are poised to fall, and the new government prioritizes housing affordability – all of which should provide a supportive backdrop for real estate. Yet stakeholders remain watchful: abrupt policy shifts or external shocks (e.g. escalation of the Ukraine conflict, global recession risk) could quickly alter the sentiment.
Outlook for the Next 1–3 Years
Residential: The Polish housing market is expected to stabilize and gradually gain momentum in the next few years, barring any major shocks. After the roller-coaster of the past two years – with demand whipsawed by interest rate swings and subsidy programs – 2025 is projected to be a year of normalization. Market forecasts suggest housing sales will remain steady or improve slightly in 2025, supported by lower interest rates and continued wage growth, but not return to the record levels of the 2020–2021 boom globalpropertyguide.com. Polityka Insight, in conjunction with real estate portal Otodom, anticipates that 2025 home sales will “remain stable, avoiding a major downturn or a wave of developer bankruptcies,” although not reaching previous peaks globalpropertyguide.com. This implies developers can expect a healthier sales environment than 2023, especially if the “Key to Apartment” program activates some extra demand in lower segments. Price-wise, most analysts foresee moderate growth in home prices on the order of a few percent per year. EY’s 2025 guide expects a slower pace of price increase, essentially in line with inflation ey.com. With inflation trending around 5% and potentially lower, nominal house price growth could be mid-single-digit, translating to roughly flat in real terms – a far cry from the double-digit jumps recently, but positive. A plateau or slight dip in real prices could actually improve affordability, which is currently stretched (price-to-income ratios in big cities like Warsaw and Kraków are at historic highs).
One factor that will influence the market is the interest rate trajectory. Should the central bank cut rates more aggressively than expected (for instance, bringing the reference rate under 4% by 2026), mortgage rates would drop and likely give housing an extra boost. On the flip side, if inflation proves sticky and keeps borrowing costs higher for longer, the housing recovery might be slower. Assuming base rates do fall gradually, we can expect mortgage availability to expand – more households will regain loan eligibility, releasing some pent-up demand from those who postponed buying in 2022–23. Banks have already started loosening credit curbs (the Polish FSA had imposed strict stress-test buffers, which eased in mid-2023), so credit flow should improve. Additionally, first-time buyer support remains on the agenda: if the government’s new housing program is implemented in 2025, it could stimulate the lower end of the market (though with price caps, it might channel demand to cheaper suburbs or second-hand units).
Another emerging trend is the growth of the PRS (institutional rental) sector which will add supply, especially in Warsaw. Several build-to-rent projects will be completed in 2025–2026, offering new rental apartments that could modestly increase vacancy in the buy-to-let segment. However, given Poland’s huge deficit of modern rental housing, these additions will likely be absorbed without issue, and rents are expected to keep rising modestly (in the 3–5% annual range nationally, assuming inflation ~5%). The rental market should remain tight in top cities due to urban population growth (including continued in-migration). Rent yields are likely to stay around 6% on average, keeping private investment in rentals attractive compared to low-risk bonds (especially once rates come down).
Crucially, no crash is anticipated in the housing market under the current outlook. Poland’s situation differs from some Western countries – there’s no widespread over-leverage (only ~11% of Polish households have mortgages globalpropertyguide.com), and banks have been conservative. Housing supply, while improving, is not excessive relative to need – Poland still has one of the lowest housing units per 1,000 people in the EU, and estimates suggest a shortage of several million units. This fundamental undersupply, coupled with generational demand (Millennials starting families), provides a cushion for the market. Risks to watch include: a significant economic downturn raising unemployment (currently low at ~5%); possible drastic policy moves such as heavy taxes on multiple properties (which could prompt some sell-off by small investors); or a resurgence of high inflation forcing rate hikes again. Barring these, the base case is slow but steady growth – the housing market “moves towards stabilization,” as Global Property Guide puts it globalpropertyguide.com, with prices and rents rising at a controlled pace and development activity adjusting to real end-user demand.
Commercial Real Estate: The outlook for commercial property in 2025–2027 is cautiously optimistic, with the expectation of increased investment activity and gradual improvement in fundamentals, especially if the economic expansion continues. According to market observers, “2025 is potentially even busier than [2024]” in terms of investment deals, given anticipated interest rate reductions and pent-up capital targeting Poland linkedin.com linkedin.com. The high yields available in Poland relative to Western Europe (often 150–300 bps higher for comparable assets) are a strong draw, and as financing costs decline, more investors should re-engage. We may see new market entrants or the return of large institutional players that were on the sidelines. Sectors likely to lead in 2025: logistics (still very much in favor globally, and Poland’s story is compelling), and offices (where repriced assets and limited new supply create a favorable dynamic). Even the office sector – which had a cautious sentiment – is predicted to attract a “gradual return of capital” in 2025 linkedin.com, especially to prime properties in Warsaw and core regional cities. With few new offices being built, investors may compete for existing stabilized assets.
The warehouse market should remain highly liquid. A significant pool of both core and opportunistic investors is targeting industrial portfolios, so 2025 could see portfolio trades or even platform acquisitions. Development in logistics will likely pick up again by late 2025 as current vacant space gets absorbed; developers like Panattoni and CTP have land banks ready and will move quickly once vacancy peaks. Thus, industrial vacancy might tick down after peaking around 8–10%, and rents should hold firm (any major rent declines are unlikely unless there’s a severe oversupply or recession).
In the retail sector, investor interest in retail parks and prime shopping centers is expected to continue. Poland’s strong consumer fundamentals and the performance of assets acquired in 2024 will influence confidence. If those big mall acquisitions by NEPI yield good returns, other investors might follow suit for the next tier of assets. There is a possibility that some international retail funds could re-enter Poland if financing improves. Retail rents are forecasted to grow modestly in top schemes as retailer sales improve, and occupancy cost ratios normalize. However, the universe of investable retail assets is smaller (no one is building new malls), so activity will focus on existing properties and perhaps redevelopment opportunities.
Across sectors, ESG and modernization will be focal points in the next few years. Buildings with strong green credentials and energy efficiency will outperform in leasing and valuation – a trend likely to strengthen as EU climate regulations tighten. This could spur more retrofitting projects and also influence new builds (for example, offices started in 2025–26 will aim for top sustainability ratings to meet future tenant and investor demands).
Another theme is alternative real estate: the PRS residential sector and student housing are expected to grow in investment volume. 2024 already saw about €340 million in PRS transactions (+170% YoY) property-forum.eu, and that figure could rise further. With housing sales slower, developers remain open to bulk sales to PRS investors (as noted, some are considering whole-building sales) linkedin.com. We anticipate more deals where a fund buys an entire new apartment block to rent out – supporting both the residential developers’ liquidity and the creation of rental stock. In tandem, student housing (dormitory projects) is an emerging niche; 2024 saw a few trades in this segment linkedin.com, and more activity may follow given Poland’s large student population and growing number of foreign students.
In terms of economic backdrop, Poland’s GDP is forecast to grow ~3% annually in 2025–2026, assuming no escalation of external crises ey.com. This growth, though slower than the 5%+ pre-2020 rates, is sufficient to drive occupancy gains in commercial real estate. Consumption should be supported by rising real incomes as inflation abates, benefitting retail and hospitality real estate. Industrial real estate will benefit if manufacturing output and trade volumes expand (and possibly a reconstruction boom in Ukraine in a few years). One uncertainty is exchange rates – a very strong or weak Polish złoty can impact investment flows. A stable złoty (PLN) in 2025 would maintain confidence, whereas volatility might cause some hesitation among foreign investors due to FX risk.
From a policy perspective, a few things to watch in the short term: If the Polish REIT law gets passed in 2025, it could open the door for domestic investment funds to enter real estate, potentially creating new demand for commercial assets (and providing an exit route for developers via public REIT sales) ey.com. Additionally, how the new planning law is implemented in 2026 will affect development pipelines – if many plots lose buildability, the value of already-zoned land and existing assets could increase. The government’s stance on foreign capital will likely remain welcoming, as Poland needs investment for growth; no major barriers for foreign property ownership are expected to arise.
In conclusion, the market outlook for the next 1–3 years is generally positive across sectors. Real estate in Poland is positioned to benefit from the confluence of lower interest rates, solid economic fundamentals, and the country’s ongoing convergence with Western Europe. As one industry outlook summarized, “the Polish market has strong foundations, and returns on investment in Poland are relatively better than in Western Europe” linkedin.com. Investors are indeed refocusing on Poland as yields have adjusted and growth prospects remain intact. We expect higher transaction volumesin 2025 as more capital finds its way into deals, and potentially further yield compression if interest rates fall faster than anticipated. For the occupier markets, modest improvements are likely: office vacancies drifting down, retail rents inching up, logistics demand staying high. Downside risks include external shocks (energy prices, geopolitical events) and domestic political uncertainty, but absent those, Poland’s real estate market should continue on a path of stable development. Stakeholders should prepare for an environment of measured growth – the double-digit surges of the past may be over, but the market is moving into a more mature phase marked by sustainability, professionalism, and steady returns.
Sources: Recent data and analysis were drawn from reports by the National Bank of Poland (NBP), global consultancy insights, and industry publications. Key references include NBP’s Q1 2024 real estate report globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com, Global Property Guide’s Poland market analysis (May 2025) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com, EY’s Polish Real Estate Guide 2025 ey.com, and Property Forum/BNP Paribas market updates property-forum.eu property-forum.eu, among others. These provide the latest available data on price indices, transaction volumes, and forecasts. All statistical figures and quotations are cited in-line throughout the report for verification. The overall outlook combines these empirical trends with prevailing expert sentiment to present a comprehensive picture of Poland’s real estate market as of mid-2025.
