San Francisco’s real estate market in 2025 is defying easy labels – a tale of two sectors moving in opposite directions. On the residential side, home prices and rents are surprisingly resilient, fueled by scarce inventory and a rebound in demand, even as high interest rates test buyers’ budgets. Meanwhile, the commercial sector – especially downtown offices – is grappling with record-high vacancy rates and the aftermath of remote work. Investors, homebuyers, sellers, and real estate professionals are watching these trends closely, looking for opportunities amid the uncertainty. This comprehensive report breaks down the key developments in residential and commercial real estate, from housing inventory and pricing trends to interest rate impacts, demographic shifts, investment opportunities, and local policy changes. Expert insights, current market data, and forecasts for the coming years are included to help you navigate what’s next for San Francisco real estate.
Table: San Francisco Real Estate 2025 – Key Market Metrics
Metric (2025) | Residential (Homes) | Commercial (Office) |
---|---|---|
Median Sale Price | ~$1.5 million (June 2025) redfin.com (up ~2–8% year-over-year) | N/A (property values down; recent distressed office sales at ~$230–$264 per sq. ft. assets.cushmanwakefield.com) |
Supply & Inventory | ~1.8 months of supply for single-family homes (seller’s market) thefrontsteps.com; ~3.8 months for condos (buyer’s market) thefrontsteps.com – historically low inventory | ~34.8% office vacancy rate (Q2 2025) assets.cushmanwakefield.com – an all-time high vacancy level |
Market Activity | 495 home sales in June 2025 (+24% YoY) redfin.com; listings often get 4+ offers and go pending ~20 days redfin.com zillow.com | Net negative absorption of -665,000 sq. ft. YTD (more space vacated than leased) assets.cushmanwakefield.com assets.cushmanwakefield.com; downtown foot traffic remains subdued |
Prices & Rents | Typical home value ~$1.27M (Jul 2025) zillow.com; Median rent ~$2,941/month (June 2025), up 11% YoY sfchronicle.com (highest since 2020) | Average Class A office asking rent ~$66.78 per sq. ft. annually assets.cushmanwakefield.com (holding flat, some landlord concessions) |
2025 Trend/Outlook | Resilient – Low supply props up prices; sales picking up despite 6–7% mortgage rates. Forecasts range from a -6% drop (Zillow) resiclubanalytics.com to a modest +3% gain (NAR) nowbam.com in home prices over the next year. | Transitional – Vacancy near peak; slight leasing uptick from AI and biotech firms, but slow recovery expected. City incentives for office-to-housing conversions could gradually reduce downtown vacancies axios.com spur.org. |
Residential Real Estate Trends in 2025
Tight Inventory Fuels a Seller’s Market
San Francisco’s housing inventory remains extremely tight in 2025, continuing a multi-year downtrend. There are “just aren’t enough homes to go around,” as one local market report noted thefrontsteps.com. By May 2025, the number of homes for sale was lower than a year ago – single-family home listings were down ~2.5% year-over-year, and condo listings down a striking ~14% thefrontsteps.com. This constrained supply is a major hurdle for buyers and a boon for sellers, tipping the market toward a seller’s advantage.
A healthy, balanced housing market is typically considered around 3 months of inventory (months of supply) in California thefrontsteps.com. San Francisco is well below that benchmark. The months of supply for single-family houses fell to just 1.8 months in May 2025 (a 14% YoY decline) thefrontsteps.com – firmly a seller’s market. Condos have about 3.8 months of supply (down ~22% YoY) thefrontsteps.com, which is slightly above the balanced level, leaving the condo segment leaning toward a buyer’s market. In practical terms, well-priced listings get snapped up quickly. The average single-family home spent only 13 days on market (virtually unchanged from last year) while condos averaged 23 days, 25% faster than a year ago thefrontsteps.com. Many homes are receiving multiple offers and selling above asking price – in fact, about 64% of sales in mid-2025 closed over the list price zillow.com, often after bidding wars.
This inventory crunch has kept home prices surprisingly firm. Despite a broader national cooling, San Francisco’s **median sale prices have rebounded in 2025. In May 2025, the median single-family home sold for $1,802,000, up 7.6% from a year earlier, while the median condo sold for $1,298,000 (up 8.3% YoY) thefrontsteps.com. By June, the median overall home price was around $1.5 million, a +2.7% annual increase redfin.com. This marks one of the highest price levels in over two years thefrontsteps.com, signaling that the market has regained much of the ground lost during the pandemic downturn. Low supply is a key factor propping up values – as the report put it, “this phenomenon is likely due to inventories downtrending for years at this point” thefrontsteps.com.
That said, different data sources show a nuanced picture. Zillow’s Home Value Index (which smooths out trends) pegged the typical San Francisco home value at $1.27M as of mid-2025, which is actually 1.1% lower than a year ago zillow.com. This suggests that while sold prices have risen from last year’s dip, overall home values citywide are roughly flat to slightly down compared to mid-2024. Essentially, San Francisco home prices bottomed out in late 2022/early 2023 amid surging interest rates, and have since stabilized or ticked up modestly. The recovery is uneven – the luxury segment (homes $5M and up) has seen renewed strength in 2025, while the sub-$1M condo market remains more subdued, according to local agents ruthkrishnan.com redfin.com. But across the board, the worst price declines seem to be over, thanks to scarce inventory and persistent buyer demand.
High Mortgage Rates and Affordability Challenges
The spike in mortgage interest rates over the past two years cast a long shadow on San Francisco’s housing market, but its effects are complex. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed from around 3% in 2021 to 6–7% in 2023–2024, dramatically reducing affordability for buyers. This “rate shock” initially cooled demand and contributed to the price dip in 2022. Even in 2025, rates remain elevated by historical standards – industry forecasts expect rates to stay above 6% for most of 2025 nowbam.com. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects an average 6.4% mortgage rate in the second half of 2025, only falling to around 6.1% in 2026 nowbam.com. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun emphasizes that interest rates are the “magic bullet” for the housing market – many buyers are “waiting and waiting” for rates to come down and unlock affordability nowbam.com.
In ultra-pricey San Francisco, higher borrowing costs have a huge impact on buying power. For example, a $1.5M home with 20% down carries roughly a $7,000 monthly mortgage at a 6.5% rate (excluding taxes/insurance) – nearly double the payment at 3% interest. This has sidelined some would-be buyers, especially first-timers without equity. Housing affordability in the Bay Area is near record lows, and all-cash or high-income buyers have an edge in this environment. As one Silicon Valley realtor noted, “the vast majority of [Bay Area] residents feel wealthier because the vast majority invest in stocks or have company RSUs” – after a booming 2023–24 stock market (especially in tech), many affluent buyers have cash ready despite high rates financialsamurai.com. This wealth effect, concentrated among tech workers and investors, is helping sustain demand for homes even as mortgage costs remain high.
Sellers, on the other hand, have been reluctant to list, which worsens the inventory crunch. Many homeowners locked in 3% mortgages are hesitant to sell and give up their low rate, a phenomenon known as the “lock-in effect.” New listings in San Francisco were down ~13% year-over-year for condos and roughly flat for houses in mid-2025 thefrontsteps.com, reflecting this seller hesitation. In short, high rates have reduced mobility in the market – fewer people are selling, and those buying are stretching budgets or bringing more cash. This dynamic ironically helps hold prices up, as supply stays tight.
Looking ahead, modestly lower rates could be a catalyst. If inflation continues to ease, most forecasts see mortgage rates dipping closer to ~6% by late 2025 nowbam.com. That could improve affordability somewhat and bring some buyers back from the sidelines. Indeed, there are early signs of buyer adaption: San Francisco home sales jumped 24% in June 2025 vs. the prior year redfin.com, suggesting demand is picking up despite rates holding around 6.5%. Experts expect incremental improvements: NAR predicts home sales will rise ~6% in 2025 and another 11% in 2026 as the market gradually adjusts nowbam.com nowbam.com. Affordability, however, will remain a critical constraint. San Francisco’s median home price is over 214% higher than the U.S. average redfin.com, and even a return to 5% mortgage rates (unlikely before 2026) would still keep monthly payments heavy. Buyers and investors in 2025 are thus navigating a high-rate environment, often using creative strategies – larger down payments, rate buydowns, or hybrid ARMs – to make the math work until financing costs hopefully ease.
Demographic Shifts and Housing Demand
San Francisco’s population trends play a pivotal role in the real estate outlook. The city experienced a sharp exodus during 2020–2021: the population plunged from ~878,000 in April 2020 to about 812,000 in 2022, a ~7.5% drop sfchronicle.com. This was driven by pandemic remote work, tech layoffs, and residents seeking more space or lower costs elsewhere. However, 2023–2024 saw a tentative rebound. By mid-2024, San Francisco’s population was estimated just under 828,000, up ~1.7% from its 2022 low sfchronicle.com. All five Bay Area counties returned to modest population growth in 2024 costar.com, thanks largely to international immigration and some domestic returnees.
Crucially, who is coming back (and who isn’t) reveals the city’s shifting demographics. Analysis of Census data shows that young adults (20–24) have been returning in large numbers – likely as students and early-career workers repopulate the city sfchronicle.com. Certain groups even grew beyond pre-pandemic levels: for instance, the number of Asian females 35–39 and Asian males 40–44 in SF is now about 2% higher than in 2020, after dipping in 2020–22 and then rebounding past the old baseline sfchronicle.com. In contrast, many younger white professionals (late 20s to early 30s) who left have not returned – San Francisco saw about a quarter of its white population in that age range depart, and that cohort remains significantly smaller than before sfchronicle.com. This suggests that remote work and affordability concerns continue to redirect some of the traditional tech workforce to other regions.
These demographic shifts have mixed effects on housing. The return of students and young workers supports the rental market and entry-level sales (e.g. condos), while the loss of some mid-career professionals could soften demand for luxury rentals or trade-up homes. Additionally, San Francisco remains the fastest-aging metro in the U.S., with very few children – families have been leaving in search of more space or affordable suburbs sfchronicle.com. The city’s low birth rate and family outmigration mean less pressure on single-family home demand from growing households, but a continued bias toward smaller units and rentals for singles and couples.
On the positive side, foreign immigration has bolstered the population. The Bay Area’s recovery has been fueled by international migrants filling jobs and housing; San Francisco gained thousands of new residents from abroad in the past year costar.com. Many are highly skilled workers in tech and biotech, or students – groups that often rent before buying, contributing to the heated rental demand.
Perhaps the biggest demographic/economic factor is the tech industry’s resurgence in 2023–2025, especially the AI boom. San Francisco has become an epicenter of the artificial intelligence revolution, attracting companies and talent. Massive funding – $75 billion in VC investment in the first half of 2025 alone – poured into SF-based startups, particularly AI firms assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Companies like OpenAI (valued ~$100B) and Anthropic (valued $40B+) are rapidly expanding their presence in the city, hiring talent and leasing office space financialsamurai.com financialsamurai.com. This influx of high-paid tech workers is already minting new millionaires and re-energizing segments of the housing market. As these companies mature, employees flush with stock IPO wealth could pour liquidity into the real estate market, echoing past tech booms financialsamurai.com. One long-time investor argues this “extraordinary amount of [tech] wealth” created will inevitably flow into Bay Area home purchases and lifestyle upgrades financialsamurai.com. Indeed, the boom in AI is cited as a key reason “2025 presents an excellent opportunity to invest in San Francisco real estate” by some experts, who foresee surging housing demand as the tech sector expands financialsamurai.com financialsamurai.com.
In summary, San Francisco’s housing demand in 2025 reflects a city in flux: total population is still ~5–6% below pre-pandemic sfchronicle.com, yet rising again as young adults, immigrants, and tech innovators arrive. The return-to-office push by major employers (Google, Amazon, JPMorgan and others now requiring more in-person work) financialsamurai.com is gradually refilling the city on weekdays, which may encourage some workers to live closer to the office again. Remote work is far from dead – San Francisco’s office attendance is still only ~50% of pre-COVID levels on average sfchronicle.com batlingroup.com – but the pendulum is inching back. As one real estate blogger put it, “urban living is making a strong comeback” and San Francisco is regaining its allure of world-class dining, culture, and jobs, which “is likely to drive property prices higher in coming years” financialsamurai.com. Demographically, the city is attracting a more tech-centric, affluent crowd even as some middle-class families and remote workers remain on the sidelines. This polarization presents challenges (e.g. an aging population, fewer families), but the inflow of high-earning talent bodes well for housing demand if the city can retain these newcomers long-term.
Rental Market Rebound: From Renter’s Lull to Landlord’s Market
After a pandemic-era slump, San Francisco’s rental market has come roaring back in 2025. Vacant apartments that languished in 2021 are now drawing lines out the door. In June 2025, San Francisco’s median apartment rent surged 11% year-over-year – the fastest rent increase of any U.S. city, even as the national median rent fell 0.7% in the same period sfchronicle.com. The city’s median rent hit $2,941 per month, the highest level since 2020 (though still a bit below the 2019 peak) sfchronicle.com. Vacancy rates for apartments have tightened dramatically, dropping from about 5.1% in mid-2024 to just 3.5% in mid-2025 sfchronicle.com. By comparison, the U.S. rental vacancy rate is around 6% – San Francisco’s rental supply is extremely constrained again.
This sudden swing has created what landlords describe as a “feeding frenzy.” Renters are once more facing crowded open houses, bidding wars, and even ‘rent bid’ overasking offers. One local renter recounted open houses “so crowded, [people were] bumping into each other” with dozens of applicants for one unit sfchronicle.com. Applicants are writing personal “love letters” to landlords with resumes attached, offering several months of rent upfront, and some landlords report 30+ applications for desirable units sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com. “I haven’t seen this since before COVID,” said one property management CEO managing 1,100 units, who leased seven apartments in a single Saturday sfchronicle.com. Nearly every new lease is being signed at rents higher than the previous tenant’s, often a few hundred dollars more sfchronicle.com. In the hottest neighborhoods (e.g. Mission, Potrero Hill, parts of Dogpatch), landlords are seeing 20% rent jumps on turnover units compared to last year sfchronicle.com.
Several factors are driving this landlord’s market. Pent-up demand is a big one: many young renters doubled up or left the city in 2020–21, and are now returning or seeking their own place. High home prices and interest rates are also trapping would-be first-time buyers in the rental market – with mortgages so expensive, many renters have “given up” on buying for now sfchronicle.com, which keeps demand piled into rentals. Additionally, tech layoffs in 2022–23 did not lead to a soft rental market for long, because a lot of wealthier renters stayed or were replaced by new hires in growth sectors like AI. As Rob Warnock, senior research associate at Apartment List, observed: despite economic uncertainty, there’s “plenty of money to drive up rents in a supply-constrained market” in San Francisco sfchronicle.com. The AI hiring boom is a key example – companies like OpenAI and Anthropic not only lease offices, but also bring an influx of well-paid employees who need housing. This has “minted more millionaires” and intensified competition for high-end rentals, as these renters can afford premium units sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com. One supervisor of the SF Association of Realtors noted the eastern neighborhoods near tech hubs “100%” feel as hot as the dot-com era; startup-rich areas are seeing the most frenzied rent increases sfchronicle.com.
On the supply side, turnover is low – existing tenants are staying put for fear of not finding a new place in this frenzied market sfchronicle.com. New construction of rental housing in SF is slow (more on that in the policy section), so effective supply hasn’t grown enough to meet the resurgent demand. The result is a classic supply-demand squeeze: too many renters chasing too few units. Landlords have regained pricing power that was absent for the last five years. By mid-2025, San Francisco’s rent levels are roughly 10% below their 2019 peak on average, meaning there’s still room to run if economic growth continues sfchronicle.com. Some higher-end buildings are already seeing rents back at or above 2019 levels, while older/smaller units lag slightly sfchronicle.com.
Importantly, rents are seasonal – they tend to peak in summer. 2025’s summer spike has exceeded expectations, but come winter, the market may cool modestly as usual. Still, the broader trend suggests San Francisco is tilting back to a landlord’s market after the pandemic’s renter-friendly lull. For investors, this means improving yields on rental properties. Rising rents combined with slight price declines in 2022–23 have boosted cap rates a bit, though SF real estate yields remain relatively low (~3-5% typical) due to high prices. The rent surge is a double-edged sword: it signals robust demand (good for landlords and property values), but also underscores the housing affordability crisis that the city faces (tough for renters and policymakers). As one indicator of the tight market, some tenants now offer a full year’s rent upfront to secure a lease – an almost unheard-of tactic, now making a comeback sfchronicle.com. Janan New of the SF Apartment Association summed it up: “The market is crazy now. Very competitive… we have heard stories of up to 30 applicants at some open houses” sfchronicle.com. She noted a few pockets are still soft (e.g. SoMa and the Tenderloin, which have the city’s lowest rents due to remote work and street conditions) sfchronicle.com, but overall 2025 is the strongest rental market SF has seen since the mid-2010s.
Commercial Real Estate Trends in 2025
Office Market Collapse and the Remote Work Overhang
San Francisco’s commercial real estate – particularly the office sector – is facing a dramatic shake-up in 2025. The pivot to remote and hybrid work during the pandemic led to an office vacancy crisis that shows little sign of quick resolution. As of mid-2025, downtown San Francisco is struggling with record-high office vacancies. The overall office vacancy rate hit 34.8% in Q2 2025 assets.cushmanwakefield.com, up from an already high ~33.5% a year prior. This means over 1/3 of all office space in the city is sitting empty, a startling figure for what was once one of the world’s tightest office markets. By comparison, the national office vacancy is about 19–20% credaily.com axios.com, putting San Francisco among the most distressed big-city office markets in the U.S. (indeed, one survey of 91 major cities found SF had the highest vacancy rate of all, at 34.7% axios.com).
Downtown’s iconic towers, from the Transamerica Pyramid to Market Street high-rises, are now often half-occupied, especially the older buildings. Class B/C office properties (older, less amenity-rich buildings) are struggling the most – they are “harder to lease” in the new market reality spur.org. Premium Class A towers with modern amenities still have relatively lower vacancy (for example, “trophy” Tier 1 buildings in the Financial District have around 10% direct vacancy assets.cushmanwakefield.com), as companies that do want space are “flight-to-quality” seeking the best locations. But even those trophy buildings are offering concessions and seeing some big move-outs. The pattern of space givebacks continued through 2025: in Q2, Google’s 365,000 sq. ft. lease at One Market Plaza expired and was not renewed, adding a huge block of empty space assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Autonomous vehicle company Cruise also put 182,000 sq. ft. on the sublease market assets.cushmanwakefield.com. These are just two examples among many downsizing or exiting tenants. Overall net absorption was -665,000 sq. ft. in the first half of 2025 (meaning more space was vacated than newly leased) assets.cushmanwakefield.com. San Francisco has now had four consecutive years of negative office absorption, wiping out all the occupancy gains of the 2010s.
The root cause is remote work and hybrid schedules drastically reducing the need for office space. Weekly office attendance is still only ~45–50% of pre-pandemic norms in San Francisco’s business districts blog.bayareametro.gov. Many tech firms have embraced permanent hybrid models, giving up excess space. Even companies that are expanding (often AI startups) tend to lease smaller, flexible offices or coworking space rather than whole towers. San Francisco’s office demand in 2025 is roughly 30% below 2019 levels by most measures, which aligns with the vacancy surge. And new supply hasn’t been the issue – very few new office buildings have opened since 2020. It’s really a demand shock: the footprint of the tech industry (SF’s largest office tenant base) has shrunk. Major employers like Salesforce, Meta, Dropbox, and others have sublet or vacated chunks of their SF offices in the last 2–3 years.
Financially, this office downturn is hammering landlords and investors. Office property values have plummeted from their peak – buildings that sold for $800/sq. ft. pre-pandemic are now trading at steep discounts. In 2023–24, several high-profile downtown buildings were foreclosed or sold at auction for a fraction of their former value. For instance, Market Center (555 California’s complex) changed hands via lender sale in 2025 for about $230 per sq. ft., and another tower at 300 Howard sold for ~$264 per sq. ft. assets.cushmanwakefield.com. These prices are 70%+ below peak valuations, indicating the extent of distress. Such fire-sale deals attracted some opportunistic investors – one was even cited as “one of the highest price points SF has seen in recent years,” highlighting how low the baseline has sunk assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Cap rates (investment yields) for SF offices have jumped to the high single-digits or more to attract buyers, reflecting uncertainty about future income.
Rent levels, interestingly, have not collapsed as much as occupancy. The average asking rent for San Francisco office space was about $66.78 per sq. ft. per year (full-service gross) in Q2 2025, virtually flat from $66.61 the previous quarter assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Class A offices in the CBD ask around $73/sf, and top-tier space can still command over $100/sf assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Nominal rents are holding because landlords don’t want to “reset” the market lower – instead, they offer big concessions (free rent months, larger tenant improvement allowances) to strike deals. Effective rents have fallen, but the listed rates suggest landlords expect this downturn to be temporary. There’s a sense of bottoming out: one report noted the office market “continued to stabilize” in mid-2025, with leasing activity actually picking up even as vacancy rates rose slightly due to old leases ending assets.cushmanwakefield.com assets.cushmanwakefield.com. In fact, new leasing volume in the first half of 2025 was the strongest since 2019 assets.cushmanwakefield.com – a sign that some tenants are taking advantage of cheaper, flexible deals to move or upgrade space. Many of these tenants are smaller tech and AI firms grabbing short-term leases (often subleases) at bargain rents assets.cushmanwakefield.com. Sublease availability, which spiked early in the pandemic, has actually declined somewhat (from ~7 million sq. ft. down to 6.2 million sq. ft.) as some subleases expired or were withdrawn assets.cushmanwakefield.com.
Despite these small positive signs, the reality is that downtown SF has a huge glut of office space that could take years to absorb. At ~35% vacancy, roughly 25 million sq. ft. is empty – equivalent to nearly all the office space in downtown Atlanta sitting vacant, by comparison. Even optimistic forecasts don’t see vacancy returning below 20% until late this decade without major intervention. Landlords with loans coming due face distress – refinancing is difficult with high interest rates and low occupancy, so more defaults and distressed sales are expected.
Remote work’s persistence is the fundamental challenge. Many companies now use a hybrid 2-3 days office schedule, effectively needing 40–60% less space per employee than pre-2020. Additionally, some large firms have relocated or expanded elsewhere (Texas, Florida, etc.), structurally reducing SF’s office demand. One bright spot is the life sciences sector – lab space demand in Mission Bay and Dogpatch remains solid, as wet labs can’t be remote. But those are a fraction of the overall market. Co-working and flex-space providers are also expanding (e.g. WeWork’s competitors and local coworking startups) to accommodate firms seeking short-term commitments.
In sum, San Francisco’s office market in 2025 is in the midst of an unprecedented shakeout. Vacancy at ~35% is uncharted territory, and rent revenue citywide is down ~7% from 2019 while operating costs are up ~28% for landlords sfchronicle.com, creating financial pain. The downtown economy has been hit hard – fewer office workers mean less foot traffic for retailers (discussed below) and lower transit ridership. The path forward likely involves repurposing obsolete offices and waiting for the gradual return of some demand as the economy evolves. Hybrid work is here to stay, but San Francisco is betting that its strengths – innovation, culture, and location – will eventually draw companies and workers back more strongly. City officials and investors are now actively pursuing strategies to fill the void, from converting offices to housing to offering incentives for new uses, which we explore in the next sections.
Retail and Commercial Mixed Signals
The woes of downtown offices have spilled over into San Francisco’s retail and hospitality sector. Fewer workers in the city’s core means fewer customers for shops, cafes, and restaurants, especially on weekdays. Union Square and Market Street, the city’s premier retail corridors, have been visibly affected – with high-profile closures and empty storefronts making headlines. In 2023, both Nordstrom and Westfield Mall announced they were leaving downtown: Westfield handed control of its SF Center mall back to the lender, and Nordstrom closed its SF flagship, citing declining foot traffic and safety concerns globest.com sfist.com. They were among dozens of retailers – from large chains like Old Navy and Anthropologie to small boutiques – that have shuttered or relocated since 2020 sfist.com. By early 2025, Union Square’s retail vacancy was estimated around 25%, and some side streets in the Financial District saw up to 1/3 of storefronts vacant abc7news.com. This is a stark contrast to the near 5% retail vacancy pre-pandemic.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for SF retail. There are signs of adaptation and recovery in 2025. Several new businesses have opened downtown this year, including some restaurants, experiential stores, and entertainment venues, suggesting entrepreneurs see opportunity in cheaper rents downtownsf.org. The city even relaxed certain regulations – for instance, San Francisco eased its limits on chain stores opening on key corridors like Van Ness Avenue to attract new tenants into empty spaces youtube.com abc7news.com. The Downtown Community Benefit District reported at least four new businesses opened in early 2025 in the Union Square area, with more planned, as part of efforts to “spark downtown’s momentum” downtownsf.org. And while major luxury retailers left, others have moved in (for example, IKEA is opening a new urban format store in the mid-Market area in 2025, aiming to draw shoppers and anchor a revitalization there).
Importantly, tourism has been recovering, which helps retail and hospitality. Hotel occupancy in San Francisco is rebounding with the return of conventions and tourists, although it’s still below 2019 levels. International tourism, in particular from Europe and Asia, picked up in 2023–2024 with pent-up travel demand. This brings more shoppers and diners back to Union Square and Fisherman’s Wharf. The 2026 World Cup and other events on the horizon are also prompting efforts to spruce up downtown.
In the broader commercial real estate spectrum beyond offices and retail, industrial and warehouse spaces in San Francisco have remained tight (the city has limited industrial stock and strong demand from last-mile distribution and maker industries). Multifamily apartment buildings (5+ units) have become hot commodities for investors again, thanks to the surging rents – though SF’s stringent rent control and tenant protections make investors cautious, the high-end new apartment buildings (which are exempt from rent control) are performing well with rising rents and occupancy.
Overall, the commercial real estate outlook in SF is a mixed bag: office and downtown retail are in a painful adjustment, while other segments like residential rentals, labs, and neighborhood retail show resilience. The city’s economic health in coming years will depend on reinvigorating downtown and successfully repurposing underused commercial spaces. Policymakers are acutely aware of this, leading to a flurry of local policy changes aimed at turning things around.
Local Policy Changes and Their Impact
Faced with these unprecedented challenges, San Francisco’s leaders (in partnership with California’s state government) have launched a series of policy changes to bolster the real estate market and address longstanding issues. Key initiatives in 2024–2025 target everything from housing production and affordability to revitalizing downtown with new uses. Below are the major policy shifts and what they mean for the market:
Accelerating Housing Production and Easing Development
San Francisco has a well-earned reputation for slow housing development – notorious permitting delays, stringent zoning, and frequent neighborhood opposition have constrained new construction for decades. In 2023, the state of California put San Francisco on notice that this had to change. The city’s state-mandated Housing Element (2023–2031) set an ambitious goal of 82,000+ new homes by 2031 to alleviate the affordability crisis gov.ca.gov. However, a state housing review in late 2023 found SF’s practices out of compliance with state law, noting that if the current pace continued (fewer than 1 housing unit approved per day in 2023), the city would severely miss its goal gov.ca.gov gov.ca.gov. In response, the state has prescribed 18 Required Actions for San Francisco, essentially forcing the city to streamline and reform its housing approval process gov.ca.gov. These include: eliminating some discretionary project reviews, reforming how CEQA (environmental review) is applied locally, speeding up post-approval permits, and increasing transparency/accountability in the planning process gov.ca.gov. Governor Gavin Newsom emphasized that SF’s “complex, cumbersome, unpredictable” housing approvals must be fixed to usher in a “new housing era” with greater supply gov.ca.gov.
Already, we’re seeing changes. In 2023–2024, San Francisco adopted a series of ordinances to “cut red tape” for housing. For example, the city moved to comply with new state laws like SB 35/SB 423, which allow certain multifamily projects to get ministerial (“by-right”) approval if they meet affordability and zoning criteria spur.org. The planning department is updating codes to reduce subjective design reviews and conditional use requirements. Mayor London Breed (through 2024) and the new Mayor Daniel Lurie (as of 2025) both championed pro-housing measures. Mayor Lurie, who took office with a platform of restoring San Francisco’s vibrancy, supports policies to “bring common sense back” to development – making it easier to build housing and attract families back financialsamurai.com. There’s cautious optimism that local politics are shifting away from NIMBYism toward a more YIMBY (Yes-In-My-Backyard) approach, given the state pressure and visible need for more housing.
One tangible policy change: impact fees and requirements have been eased for certain projects. In 2023, SF legalized fourplexes on most single-family lots (in response to California’s SB9), and initiated programs to encourage Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs). The city also curtailed some affordable housing mandates that were stalling projects – for instance, temporarily reducing inclusionary zoning percentages on certain projects to improve feasibility, and offering fee waivers for 100% affordable housing developments. These efforts aim to unlock stalled projects; indeed, a few previously approved but unbuilt projects have broken ground in 2024 after these adjustments. Still, progress is slow: by the end of 2024, SF was lagging behind many other Bay Area cities in meeting its housing targets sfchronicle.com sfstandard.com, with only a few thousand units permitted since 2023. The test will be whether reforms can markedly speed up construction in 2025–2026.
Office-to-Residential Conversions and Downtown Revitalization
Perhaps the most high-profile local policy changes are those designed to reinvent downtown San Francisco. With so much office space empty, city leaders see an opportunity to address two problems at once: fill vacant buildings and create much-needed housing. In 2023, the think tank SPUR released a major report, “From Workspace to Homebase,” analyzing which office buildings could be feasibly converted to residences spur.org. The findings: many older Class B/C offices are physically suitable for conversion but were financially infeasible under then-current rules spur.org. The report proposed six key policy changes to make conversions viable at scale spur.org.
San Francisco’s government responded swiftly. By mid-2025, the city implemented all six SPUR recommendations spur.org, enacting one of the nation’s most aggressive pro-conversion incentive packages:
- Eased Building Codes & Approvals: In 2023, legislation was passed to waive certain planning code requirements for office-to-residential projects spur.org. This created a faster, ministerial approval path (exempting projects from lengthy discretionary reviews and even CEQA in many cases). The Department of Building Inspection also published clearer adaptive reuse guidelines to help developers navigate seismic and fire safety upgrades in older offices spur.org spur.org.
- Inclusionary Housing and Impact Fees Waived: A crucial change came in March 2025, when the Board of Supervisors approved a law waiving all affordable housing (inclusionary) requirements and city impact fees for up to 7 million sq. ft. of office space converted to residential spur.org spur.org. Normally, new housing must include a percentage of below-market units or pay hefty fees – those are now suspended for qualifying conversion projects, massively reducing costs.
- Tax Incentives: Voters in 2024 passed Proposition C, which waives the real estate transfer tax on up to 5 million sq. ft. of converted space spur.org spur.org. Since SF has high transfer taxes (up to 6% on large transactions), this is a significant savings for conversion deals. Additionally, California passed AB 2488 (Ting) in 2024, enabling SF to create a special “financing district” to support conversions spur.org. In June 2025, the city established this district, which will reimburse developers with future property tax increment – essentially rebating some of the new property taxes from a converted building back to the project to close financial gaps spur.org spur.org. This unique tool will help offset the high construction costs of gutting and retrofitting offices.
- Prop M Reserve: San Francisco’s Proposition M (a cap on new office development) was modified so that any office space removed via conversion adds back to the city’s allowable office quota in the future spur.org. This “space bank” means the city isn’t permanently losing potential job space – once the market recovers, new state-of-the-art offices could be built replacing the converted stock, theoretically. It was a political compromise to get broad support for conversions.
These incentives are among the most generous in the country for office conversion. The result: developers and property owners are now seriously evaluating many buildings for residential reuse. A study by The Kaplan Group found San Francisco has potential for about 61,600 housing units through office conversions (if all eligible vacant offices were converted) axios.com axios.com – the second highest potential in the U.S. after NYC. City officials are eager to capture this. The first post-pandemic conversion projects are moving forward: for example, the historic Humboldt Bank Building on Market Street is slated to become housing axios.com. Numerous other proposals are in the pipeline, focusing on older financial district towers and SoMa office buildings from the 1960s-1980s that have high vacancies.
While challenges remain – conversion costs are still high (many buildings may only pencil out if acquired at distressed prices) – these policy changes greatly improve the math. By waiving millions in fees and taxes and expediting approvals, SF has signaled it is “deeply committed to reimagining downtown as a mixed-use district” spur.org. The hoped-for benefits are multifold: economic (replacing low-value empty offices with valuable residences should increase property and sales tax revenue spur.org), social (adding housing could bring thousands of residents to support small businesses, arts, and nightlife downtown spur.org), and housing (more units, including potentially more affordable units, in a transit-rich area). One city supervisor proclaimed, “We’re not just speeding needed progress on housing production — we’re updating 20th-century land-use decisions to create thriving 21st-century mixed-use neighborhoods.” axios.com
Beyond conversions, City Hall has launched a broader Downtown Recovery Plan. In 2023, Mayor Breed convened a task force (continued under Mayor Lurie) to attract new industries – e.g. life science labs, AI R&D centers, even art and educational institutions – into vacant downtown spaces. There are discussions about zoning flexibility to allow more nightlife, event venues, and even residential hotels in former office buildings. Tax credits for employers that bring workers back to the office were floated. The city is also investing in quality of life improvements: increasing police foot patrols and street cleaning downtown to address safety and cleanliness, which had deterred some office workers and shoppers. Mayor Lurie has emphasized being “tougher on crime, clearing the streets of homelessness, [and] getting rid of drug dealers” to improve downtown’s image financialsamurai.com. Early 2025 saw intensified efforts to relocate encampments into shelter and crackdown on open-air drug markets in the Tenderloin. While these social issues persist, any success in making downtown feel safer and more vibrant could directly impact real estate by drawing people back.
Housing Affordability and Tenant Protections
On the residential side, San Francisco has continued its tradition of strong tenant protections, but with some new twists. The city’s “Empty Homes Tax” – a voter-approved measure (Prop M 2022) to tax owners of units that sit vacant more than half the year – was set to take effect in 2024. It aimed to push some of an estimated 4,000 vacant units back onto the rental market and raise funds for housing sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com. However, that law hit a legal roadblock: in October 2024, a Superior Court judge struck down the Empty Homes Tax as unconstitutional and preempted by state law sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com. The city has been appealing the ruling sfchronicle.com, and for now the tax’s implementation is on hold. Proponents like Supervisor Dean Preston argue it’s a needed tool to increase rental supply, while critics claim it infringes on property rights sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com. Depending on the outcome of the appeal (or a revised measure), this could come back in some form – potentially influencing how many condo owners keep units empty versus renting them out. For now, though, the Empty Homes Tax is in limbo sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com.
Rent control remains firmly in place: most multifamily buildings built before 1979 are under the city’s rent stabilization ordinance, which in 2025 allows annual rent increases of only 1.4% sf.gov. In the high-inflation period of 2022–2023, this meant many landlords’ costs far outpaced their allowed rent hikes (one survey found operating expenses up ~20–30% since 2019, while rent-controlled revenues fell ~7%) sfchronicle.com. Some small landlords sold properties as a result, and these older buildings often got snapped up by investors betting on long-term appreciation rather than short-term cashflow.
To address affordability, San Francisco in 2025 is also exploring new funding sources for housing. A local measure to issue bonds for affordable housing (in the $300–500 million range) is expected on an upcoming ballot. And the city is tapping state and federal funds: Mayor Breed (before leaving office) announced plans to use a new federal program to finance 3,700 new affordable homes as part of her “Housing for All” initiative aimed at meeting the 82,000-unit goal sf.gov. This includes building on public land and converting tourist hotels to SRO-style housing for homeless and low-income residents.
In sum, local policy in 2025 is actively evolving to stimulate the real estate market: speeding up housing construction, aggressively promoting adaptive reuse of empty offices, and taking measures (sometimes experimentally or controversially) to improve the business climate and livability of the city. The expert consensus is that these policies are necessary first steps, but execution will be key. As SPUR’s Chief Policy Officer Sujata Srivastava noted, converting offices “delivers economic, social, environmental, and fiscal benefits” and similar programs have revived downtowns in cities like NYC and Philadelphia – now “we’re eager to see what happens next in San Francisco.” spur.org spur.org The coming years will reveal how much these policy levers can actually pull San Francisco out of its commercial real estate rut and alleviate its housing shortage.
Investment Opportunities and Outlook
The contrasting fortunes of San Francisco’s residential and commercial markets in 2025 present a unique landscape for investors. Opportunities exist, but so do risks, and success will hinge on careful strategy and timing. Here are some key investment insights and expert predictions looking ahead:
Residential: Buying the Dip and Riding the Tech Wave
For real estate investors and homebuyers, San Francisco’s residential sector in 2025 offers a potentially attractive entry point – at least according to some seasoned observers. Home prices, while rebounding, are still generally below their 2018–2020 peak (especially for condos), and high mortgage rates have thinned out competition compared to the frenzy of the late 2010s. Financial analysts like the author of Financial Samurai argue that 2025 is an “excellent opportunity” to buy in San Francisco financialsamurai.com. The rationale: tech is booming, and the city is likely at an inflection point just before a new upswing. With the NASDAQ up big in 2023–24 and massive wealth creation in AI, many locals have newfound stock riches that will eventually be converted into home purchases financialsamurai.com. As this tech/AI wealth “inevitably” trickles into real estate, demand (and prices) could surge – meaning those who buy now could benefit from significant appreciation in the coming years financialsamurai.com financialsamurai.com.
Additionally, inventory is so low that any uptick in demand will quickly translate into upward price pressure. There are signs this is starting – e.g. Spring 2024 saw intense bidding wars in certain neighborhoods again financialsamurai.com. With many buyers waiting on the sidelines, even a moderate decline in mortgage rates or a flashy IPO from a local tech firm could unleash a new wave of purchases. Pent-up demand is real: families that sat out the pandemic or renters looking to finally buy could return, creating what one expert calls a “massive bidding war” environment once conditions improve financialsamurai.com. The expectation is that life goes on – marriages, growing families, job moves – and people won’t wait forever, so even at 6-7% rates they’ll eventually re-enter the market en masse financialsamurai.com.
San Francisco also remains a place of perennial housing scarcity. Geographically small and hemmed in by water on three sides, the city can’t sprawl. Strict zoning historically limited density (though this is easing slightly now). These factors create a long-term supply constraint – “the city is only 7×7 miles, demand will always outstrip supply over the long term” as one investor noted financialsamurai.com. Thus, holding property for the long run in San Francisco has historically been a winning formula, barring short-term fluctuations. Investors with a 5+ year horizon are generally confident that values will be higher down the road.
That said, caution is warranted in the short term. Some forecasts are decidedly bearish for the near future: Zillow’s latest model predicts San Francisco will see one of the steepest home price declines in the nation over the next year – projecting a -6.1% drop by mid-2026 resiclubanalytics.com. This pessimism stems from affordability pressures and inventory starting to rise modestly on the market. Zillow economists note that nationally, rising listings have given buyers more bargaining power, and in markets like San Francisco with strained affordability, **“greater supply provides more options and puts downward pressure on prices” resiclubanalytics.com. In essence, if enough homeowners decide to sell (motivated perhaps by fear of a downturn or moving out of SF), the still-fragile demand could be swamped and lead to price softening. The bearish case also cites weak population growth and the possibility of higher unemployment in tech as risks – if the economy falters or the “AI boom” fades, housing demand could stagnate. As Apartment List’s Rob Warnock cautioned about the rental market: “If the economy remains at least as strong as today, it’s a no-brainer for [rents] to get more expensive… If AI pops like a bubble, that could change things.” sfchronicle.com The same logic applies to home values: a lot is riding on the broader tech economy’s performance.
Most experts, however, foresee modest growth or stabilization rather than a crash. The National Association of Realtors projects U.S. home prices will rise ~3% in 2025 and 4% in 2026 nowbam.com, and San Francisco could be in that range assuming the local economy stays solid. The Mortgage Bankers Association is more muted, expecting under 2% annual appreciation nationally through 2026 nowbam.com. A Real Estate Expectations survey of 100 economists put SF near the bottom of metros for 2025 outlook, but even that might mean a small single-digit decline, not a freefall. The consensus is that 2022’s correction took some froth out of the market, and what we have now is close to a new equilibrium. Barring a recession, home values are likely to bob along or climb gradually in the next year or two.
For rental property investors, the story is clearer: rents are rising and vacancy is low, so well-located multifamily assets should generate improving cash flows. Neighborhoods with high demand (e.g. Pacific Heights, Mission Bay, Noe Valley) are seeing near full occupancy and rent increases, which boosts yield. Some investors are targeting small apartment buildings and duplexes that can still be found at relative discounts compared to a few years ago, betting that rent growth plus eventual rate declines will make those very profitable. There is also interest in ADUs (accessory units) – adding a rental unit to an existing property can boost income, and California laws now make it easier to permit ADUs.
Additionally, condos – which lagged in the recovery – may be an opportunity. Condos in downtown/SOMA traded at a significant discount to their peak and to single-family homes. As the city’s vibrancy returns and return-to-office increases, urban condos could appreciate. Investors are selectively buying condos to rent out (though one must account for HOA dues and rent control if applicable).
In short, the residential outlook for investors: cautious optimism. Those with cash or solid financing see 2025 as a chance to “buy low” (relatively speaking, for SF) before an upswing. House hackers and first-time buyers have more room to negotiate now than during past frenzies. But patience and a strong financial buffer are key, since short-term volatility is possible and holding costs (mortgage, taxes) are high. If interest rates drift downward in 2025–2026 as predicted nowbam.com, anyone who bought at higher rates can refinance and potentially see a nice equity gain from both the rate drop and home appreciation – a scenario savvy investors are eyeing.
Commercial: Repurposing Distress into Opportunity
In the commercial realm, the very distress that’s plaguing downtown could be a goldmine for bold investors. The collapse in office valuations means trophy assets are available at prices unimaginable a few years ago. Deep-pocketed investors (private equity, institutional funds, high-net-worth individuals) are circling. For example, in 2025 some institutional investors like Blackstone have started to selectively buy San Francisco office buildings at heavy discounts, believing they can ride out the downturn assets.cushmanwakefield.com. The bet is that “San Francisco will bounce back” as it has from past crises (dot-com bust, Great Recession), and owning prime real estate at a basis far below replacement cost will yield outsized returns long-term. Even at 30% occupancy, if you bought a tower at 20 cents on the dollar, the math can work out with patience.
The city’s push for office-to-residential conversions also opens up new avenues. Developers who specialize in adaptive reuse are actively looking at SF. The 7 million sq. ft. of space eligible for fee waivers spur.org and other incentives is effectively a giant subsidy. If a developer can acquire an obsolete office for cheap (and many will be available via foreclosure or note sales), they can potentially convert it into apartments with much lower soft costs now. State and city incentives (tax waivers, fast-track permits, etc.) reduce risk, and there’s obvious upside in creating housing that the city desperately needs. Not all buildings will work – factors like floor plate size, window layout, and seismic retrofitting costs can make or break a conversion – but SF has a lot of early 20th century and mid-century buildings that are good candidates. We may see the emergence of a new breed of investor in SF: those who assemble a portfolio of downtown conversions, turning empty offices into rental residential or mixed-use. If they succeed, they’ll be at the forefront of downtown’s renaissance and stand to profit handsomely from turning $30/sf office rents into apartments renting $4,000 a month.
Besides conversions, the city’s allowance to reclaim Prop M office allocation for removed space spur.org means new office development could become viable in the future. This is not an immediate play, but land or older buildings could be bought now, land-banked, and then redeveloped into next-generation office or lab space once the market recovers in, say, 5-7 years. Especially valuable could be sites that can be entitlements for life science labs or healthcare, sectors with growth. We’re already seeing some downtown offices consider conversion not to housing, but to biotech lab space (which has different building requirements but high demand near UCSF and Mission Bay).
Investors are also looking at ground-floor retail and hospitality assets that are distressed. For example, some Union Square hotels (e.g. the Hilton Union Square’s loan defaulted in 2023) might change hands at low prices, and a savvy operator could reposition or wait for tourism to fully rebound and reap gains. Retail storefronts, similarly, could be bought cheap and repurposed – perhaps into gyms, entertainment venues, or even logistics pickup centers – anticipating that downtown foot traffic will gradually improve.
One direct opportunity from policy: the new downtown revitalization financing district axios.com. Developers who invest in underutilized buildings in designated areas (Market St., Financial District, Union Square, East Cut etc.) can get reimbursed via property tax increment for part of their development costs axios.com spur.org. This effectively improves project ROI. It’s a green light for creative projects – from co-working hubs to residential hybrids – knowing the city is sharing some risk.
Of course, risks in commercial are high. Carrying costs for an empty office building are enormous (taxes, security, insurance, minimal income). Financing is very tight – banks are hesitant to lend on SF office assets, meaning many deals must be all-cash or hard-money financed. The timeline for recovery is uncertain; investors might have to hold properties for many years with negative cashflow. Those converting buildings face construction risk and potential community pushback (though political winds favor them now). In short, the commercial play is for those with strong capitalization and a stomach for volatility.
Expert Forecasts and the Road Ahead
What do experts predict for San Francisco’s real estate in the next few years? In broad strokes, most see gradual improvement but no rapid boom. The phrase “cautious optimism” comes up repeatedly.
On the residential side, as noted, forecasts diverge. Zillow’s mild pessimism of a 2% U.S. home price decline in 2025 (and significantly more in SF) resiclubanalytics.com resiclubanalytics.com contrasts with NAR’s and Fannie Mae’s expectation of 3–4% national home price growth nowbam.com nowbam.com. For San Francisco specifically, industry observers think 2025 will be a year of stabilization, with prices possibly ending flat to slightly up. Much hinges on interest rates: if the Fed starts cutting rates by 2024-25 and mortgage rates dip under 6%, that could “bring back more buyers currently sitting on the sidelines,” unleashing latent demand nowbam.com. The worst-case scenario (short of an economic recession) is a slow bleed of prices down a few more percentage points due to affordability strains. But no major firm is calling for a crash – the supply crunch is too severe. As one real estate agent survey concluded, “Forecasters agree the market is past its lowest point, but recovery will take time” nowbam.com. By 2026, if rates normalize around 5-6%, most expect SF housing to resume modest appreciation, perhaps in line with income growth.
Commercial/outlook forecasts are harder to quantify, but the general sentiment is that 2025 will be the bottom for office, with maybe a slight uptick by late 2025 or 2026 as the economy grows. Office attendance in SF is slowly rising – up about 21% in the past year per Placer.ai data, one of the biggest jumps among metros sfchronicle.com – indicating that companies are getting employees back more frequently. Many believe vacancy has peaked around the mid-30s% and will start inching down as conversions remove some space and leasing gradually improves. However, even optimists concede it could take 5+ years to cut vacancy to a healthy level (~15%). CBRE and JLL forecast SF office vacancy will remain above 25% through at least 2027 in their conservative models. Rent forecasts for office are flat; landlords will likely continue with high concessions rather than cutting headline rents much, until occupancy improves.
For retail, recovery depends on the return of workers and tourists. If office occupancy improves and conventions/tourism keep rebounding, downtown retail should find a footing by 2026. The city’s moves to streamline chain store openings and fill vacancies could bring noticeable changes within 1–2 years (e.g. fewer boarded windows on key streets).
Crucially, the success of policy initiatives will shape mid-term outcomes. If even a quarter of that potential 61,000 units of office conversion is realized (say ~15,000 units in the next 5–7 years), it could be a game-changer: thousands more residents living downtown, creating a 24/7 neighborhood rather than a 9-to-5 office monoculture. This would boost safety, retail, and overall real estate values in the urban core. City leaders have essentially bet on this strategy – time will tell if developers follow through. Already, the pipeline for conversions and new housing has begun moving, which is an encouraging sign.
In expert commentary, there’s recognition that San Francisco often cycles from gloom to boom. The current narrative has been negative – headlines about a “doom loop” downtown – but local experts point out the city has a way of reinventing itself. As one commercial broker put it, “Today’s fear is tomorrow’s opportunity in real estate.” For those with a contrarian bent, San Francisco in 2025 looks like that time when smart money quietly moves in.
In conclusion, the San Francisco real estate market in 2025 is at a crossroads. Residential real estate is buoyant on low supply, showing resilience despite high borrowing costs – setting the stage for a potential surge if economic tailwinds strengthen. Commercial real estate, in contrast, is undergoing a painful transformation, but from that pain new opportunities are arising through policy-driven innovation and rock-bottom asset prices. Investors, buyers, and professionals who understand these dynamics – the interplay of inventory, interest rates, demographics, and policy – will be best positioned to thrive.
As we head into 2026 and beyond, all eyes will be on whether San Francisco can achieve a “great urban comeback”: filling its towers with new life (be it residents or new industries), keeping housing accessible amid tech prosperity, and preserving the unique cultural vibrancy that makes people want to live and invest in this city. The forecasts are hopeful but measured – modest price growth, slow healing of vacancy rates, and incremental gains in sales and construction. In the words of an industry newsletter, “Expect modest improvement in 2025, with a stronger rebound by 2026… recovery will take time.” nowbam.com San Francisco’s real estate has weathered many storms, and 2025’s story – a mix of boom and bust – is yet another chapter in its dynamic evolution. With challenges come opportunities, and in the City by the Bay, there are plenty of both on the horizon.
Sources:
- San Francisco market update and housing stats (June 2025) thefrontsteps.com thefrontsteps.com thefrontsteps.com
- Zillow Home Value Index & market data (July 2025) zillow.com zillow.com
- Redfin San Francisco housing trends (June 2025) redfin.com redfin.com
- San Francisco Chronicle – demographic trends and population changes (June 2025) sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com
- San Francisco Chronicle – rental market “landlord’s market” report (July 2025) sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com
- Cushman & Wakefield – SF Office MarketBeat Q2 2025 (vacancy, rents) assets.cushmanwakefield.com assets.cushmanwakefield.com
- Axios – office conversion potential and vacancy rankings (June 2025) axios.com axios.com
- SPUR – Policy changes for office-to-residential conversions (July 2025) spur.org spur.org
- SF Chronicle – Empty Homes Tax legal battle (Mar 2025) sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com
- Governor of CA – SF housing policy review and 82,000 homes goal (Oct 2023) gov.ca.gov gov.ca.gov
- NowBAM/ HousingWire – 2025 forecasts (home prices, sales, rates) nowbam.com nowbam.com
- ResiClub Analytics – Zillow forecast for SF (-6.1%) resiclubanalytics.com resiclubanalytics.com
- Financial Samurai – “Why buy in 2025” expert commentary financialsamurai.com financialsamurai.com
- SF Chronicle – quotes on rental market (Warnock, Huang) sfchronicle.com sfchronicle.com