Brisbane’s skyline reflects a booming 2025 real estate market. The city’s housing values have shot up 75% since 2020, reaching a median **$1.01 million** for houses by mid-2025 propertyupdate.com.au propertyupdate.com.au. Demand (fuelled by interstate migration and affordability vs Sydney/Melbourne) far outstrips supply propertyupdate.com.au propertyupdate.com.au, and analysts expect continued, if moderate, growth. For example, Domain predicts 5% annual growth for Brisbane houses in FY2025–26 (pushing the median to ~$1.09M by mid-2026) propertyupdate.com.au, with units also up ~5% (to ~$701K) propertyupdate.com.au. Broadly, the residential market is on an upswing, the rental market is ultra-tight, and the commercial sector is navigating evolving demand – all shaped by major infrastructure (Cross River Rail, Metro), strong population growth, and policy measures. This report breaks down the latest data for buyers, renters, investors and developers.
Residential Sector: Prices & Forecasts
- Current Prices: As of July 2025 Brisbane’s median house price is about $1.01M and units $718K propertyupdate.com.au. Brisbane homes have outperformed most other capitals, climbing over 50% since early 2020 propertyupdate.com.au. Inner-city lifestyle suburbs (Teneriffe, New Farm, etc.) command multi-million-dollar values, while outer corridors remain more affordable.
- Price Trends: House price growth has moderated but remains positive. Annual gains are running in the mid-single digits; e.g. ~6.3% y/y for houses in mid-2025 propertyupdate.com.au. Units (apartments) saw very strong growth (~12% in FY2024-25) propertyupdate.com.au as buyers shifted into city apartments, but that is expected to ease to ~5% p.a. going forward propertyupdate.com.au.
- Forecasts: Major forecasters (Domain, ANZ, BIS Oxford, etc.) expect steady growth over the next few years. Domain’s latest Outlook sees Brisbane house prices +5% in FY25 and +5% in FY26 propertyupdate.com.au, while unit prices rise about +5% in FY26 propertyupdate.com.au. Over the medium term (2025–27), infrastructure build-out and ~1.8% p.a. population growth in SE Queensland support this steady trend. Long-term, the 2032 Olympics and continued migration (16% pop growth by 2032 propertyupdate.com.au) are seen as structural tailwinds propertyupdate.com.au abc.net.au.
- Market Notes: Brisbane remains more affordable than Sydney/Melbourne (e.g. Syd median house ~$1.7M propertyupdate.com.au), attracting buyers. Home-buyer incentives (see below) and a split market (detached houses up, high-rise units lagging) also influence dynamics. Affluent suburbs (Teneriffe, New Farm, Paddington) continue to lead price levels propertyupdate.com.au propertyupdate.com.au, while fringe growth corridors (Ipswich, Logan, emerging North Coast links) are cheaper entry points.
Rental Market Dynamics & Yields
- Vacancy: Brisbane tenants face a rental crunch. Vacancy rates are at historic lows – around 0.8% in Jan 2025 sqmresearch.com.au (second-lowest on record). In many inner/inner-middle suburbs, vacancies are effectively under 1%. (SQM notes only ~2,877 rental listings citywide in Jan 2025, reflecting intense demand sqmresearch.com.au.)
- Rents: Rents have climbed sharply. In the year to mid-2025, Brisbane house rents were up ~9–10% and units even more silverhall.com.au. The combined median rent is roughly $671 per week sqmresearch.com.au (up ~0.6% even in June 2025). Strong demand (especially from younger families and migrants) and tight supply are driving rents. Landlords are seeing rental yields around 4.5–5.2% for houses propertyupdate.com.au (units yield slightly lower, typically 3–4%), which remain attractive relative to other cities.
- Outlook: Rents are still rising. SQM projects another 0.5–1% jump in coming months, with annual rent growth of ~4–8% likely in 2025 sqmresearch.com.au propertyupdate.com.au. However, affordability concerns are mounting; industry voices warn that as Olympic precincts (inner-city areas with many renters) redevelop, tenants may face even greater pressure abc.net.au. Overall, yields remain healthy and vacancies ultra-low, a boon for investors but a strain on renters.
Commercial Sector Overview
- Office: The Brisbane CBD office market is mixed. Vacancy has risen (to ~10.2% by Q1 2025 cbre.com.au) after years of tightness. A surge of new high-rise office supply (≈90,000 sqm delivering by late 2025 content.knightfrank.com cbre.com.au) will push vacancy higher (Knight Frank forecasts ~12% by 2026). Rents are still rising: prime CBD rents grew about 7.1% y/y cbre.com.au in Q1 2025. Yields on premium office assets remain around 7.0–7.3% cbre.com.au content.knightfrank.com. Big asset transactions continue (e.g. ~$181M traded in CBD Q1’25 cbre.com.au), but net absorption is negative, reflecting slower leasing. In summary, office rents up moderately, vacancy rising to mid-teens, yields steady.
- Industrial/Logistics: Brisbane’s big industrial market is still strong. Vacancy is low (~4.2% in Q2 2025 assets.cushmanwakefield.com, up 0.6% in 6 months) despite record construction. In fact, after a 2024 peak of ~2.6 million sqm of new warehouses, supply will sharply slow (only ~520,000 sqm due in 2025 assets.cushmanwakefield.com). As a result, leasing demand remains brisk (Q2’25 take-up ~180k sqm assets.cushmanwakefield.com) and rents continue to climb (8.3% y/y by mid-2025 assets.cushmanwakefield.com; ~1.3% qtr in Q2 assets.cushmanwakefield.com). Prime industrial yields (land & buildings) are roughly 5.9% assets.cushmanwakefield.com – notably higher than Sydney, reflecting the strong occupier market.
- Retail & Other Commercial: Inner-city retail (malls, shops) is under pressure from online shopping and changes in consumer habits, though suburbs benefit from population growth. Large suburban centres (e.g. Westfield Chermside, Carindale) see steady footfall. Accommodation/hospitality assets near tourist or transit hubs remain of interest. (Detailed retail figures are mixed; overall the commercial sector is being driven by office/industrial trends and infrastructure exposure.)
Major Infrastructure Projects
Brisbane’s real estate is being reshaped by massive public works:
- Cross River Rail (2026) – A new 10.2 km underground rail line with 4 CBD stations (Boggo Road, Woolloongabba, Albert St, Roma St) crossriverrail.qld.gov.au. This will cut travel times and unlock development corridors (e.g. Woolloongabba’s Gabba Stadium precinct). Property near CRR stations is already hot, as noted by agents.
- Brisbane Metro – The new rapid bus network (due full operation 2025) will link outer suburbs to the CBD via dedicated busways (e.g. Herston, Toowong stations). Areas around Metro stations are expected to see rising values.
- Queen’s Wharf (2024) – A $3B riverside casino–resort–hotel precinct in the CBD. Its completion is already boosting adjacent precincts (South Bank, Kangaroo Point).
- 2032 Olympic Games – Brisbane’s award as Olympic host is a long-term catalyst. Key venue announcements (e.g. 63,000-seat stadium at Victoria Park abc.net.au) have sparked investor interest in suburbs nearby. History suggests a strong Olympics effect: after Sydney 2000, suburbs near new stadiums saw median prices jump ~66% in 3 years abc.net.au. Experts believe Brisbane will see some uplift (especially in those precincts) on top of solid underlying growth abc.net.au abc.net.au.
- Roads, Airport, Other – Upgrades like the M1 Pacific Motorway (Gold Coast), the North–South Corridor, and the Brisbane Airport redevelopment also improve regional connectivity, indirectly supporting property values in nearby suburbs.
Demographics & Migration
Brisbane’s market is underpinned by population growth. Queensland’s population is booming (up 2.3% in the year to June 2024 propertyupdate.com.au, above the national 2.1%). Southeast Queensland (Greater Brisbane area) is growing fastest – ~1.9% p.a. recently vs ~1.4% outside the metro propertyupdate.com.au. Crucially, interstate migration is very high: Queensland netted by far the most internal migrants in 2022-23 silverhall.com.au as many Sydneysiders/Melburnians move north. Federal forecasts see QLD’s population up 16% by 2032 (helped by the Olympics) and reaching ~8.27 million by 2046 propertyupdate.com.au. With about 80% of those new residents in Brisbane’s region, housing demand will remain strong.
Housing Supply vs Demand
Supply is lagging demand. Recent ABS data show 171,394 home approvals in 2024 (a 4.7% rise from 2023) smartpropertyinvestment.com.au, but this is still well below the ~240,000 homes p.a. target. The HIA notes 2024 approvals barely recovered from decade lows and “were nowhere near levels needed to meet underlying demand” smartpropertyinvestment.com.au. Domain explicitly flags an undersupply as a key strength: “Housing supply not keeping pace with demand” s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com. In short, the pipeline of new dwellings in SEQ remains constrained by costs, labour shortages, and cautious developers, so existing housing absorbs most demand (keeping prices and rents elevated). On the industrial side, supply peaked in 2024 (≈2.6M sqm added) and will fall to ~520k sqm in 2025 assets.cushmanwakefield.com – this pullback should help keep industrial vacancy low. Overall, the fundamentals are tight: more buyers than homes available, more tenants than vacancies, which supports continued growth.
Government Policies & Incentives
- First-Home Buyer Grants (QLD): Queensland offers generous support. For new homes (including new builds and substantial renovations), the First Home Owner Grant is $30,000 for contracts signed 20 Nov 2023 – 30 June 2026 qro.qld.gov.au (up from $15k before). Additionally, stamp duty concessions for first home buyers mean zero duty on homes up to ~$550k, with concessions phasing out by $800k qro.qld.gov.au (max duty savings ~$24,525 qro.qld.gov.au). These measures boost entry-level demand.
- Federal incentives: The First Home Guarantee (HomeBuilder et al.) has been expanded – notably, from Jan 2026 first-timers can buy with just 5% deposit (no price cap and unlimited applicants) propertyupdate.com.au. The 2024 Federal Budget also promised 100,000 new homes over 5 years (long lead time). Together, these policies aim to support buyers but will take time to materially increase supply.
- Other Policies: Recent state budgets have left negative gearing/tax settings unchanged. Planning rules are being relaxed in some growth corridors. Infrastructure bonds and planning overlays (e.g. for Olympic Precincts) are intended to encourage development around key hubs. Land tax relief for downsizers and non-resident surcharges (FIRB surcharges) remain at previous levels.
Key Suburb Spotlights for Buyers and Investors
- Inner CBD/Lifestyle: Teneriffe and New Farm (riverside city fringe) top the list – median houses $3.9M and $3.4M respectively propertyupdate.com.au propertyupdate.com.au. These suburbs (and similarly Paddington/Red Hill) offer ultra-amenities and have held up through cycles. West End and South Brisbane (vibrant cultural hubs) also command high prices ($1.6–1.9M) propertyupdate.com.au propertyupdate.com.au and should grow further as Queen’s Wharf and Olympics approaches boost these precincts.
- Middle Rings: Camp Hill and Ashgrove are family-friendly pockets within ~8–10km of the CBD. They combine good schools/lifestyle with still-solid growth – medians ~$1.7M propertyupdate.com.au propertyupdate.com.au. Coorparoo, Wilston, Chermside and Upper Mt Gravatt are similar middle-ring candidates, offering slightly lower prices (often $700K–$1M houses) but solid demographic tailwinds (urban renewal, transit access).
- Growth Corridors: Further out, North Lakes/Redcliffe (N of city) and Ipswich/Brassall (SW) are attracting builders and buyers on budget. For example, low entry prices (sub-$600K houses) and new amenities (e.g. Springfield Lakes, Dinmore rail) make them hotspots for investors seeking yield. These areas benefit from state infrastructure promises (new rail, highways).
- Infrastructure Precincts: New station areas like Woolloongabba (stadium/CRR zone) and Herston/Newstead (hospital/health precinct) are poised for uplift. Woolloongabba in particular has seen robust value gains recently and still offers higher rental yields (strong demand) than many inner suburbs. Nearby Kangaroo Point (across river from CBD) and Bowen Hills (train hub/cluster) also merit attention.
Investor Tips: Look for suburbs where supply is limited (e.g. land-locked ridges like Ashgrove/Red Hill) and demand is structurally strong (good schools, jobs, transport). Be wary of inner-city high-rise oversupply (CBD towers) which have underperformed. Across all segments, locations tied to major transport or job projects (like Cross River Rail stations, Olympic venues, hospital precincts) are likely winners clarkrealty.com.au abc.net.au.
Final Outlook: Brisbane’s fundamentals – affordability, growth, and yield – remain compelling. Most analysts expect continued solid growth (albeit slower than the pandemic boom). As Moody’s and UBS have noted, Brisbane leads in population growth propertyupdate.com.au and is improving in economic diversity. With strong local and interstate demand, record-low vacancies, and $70+ billion in infrastructure spending underway, the consensus is that Brisbane will continue to outperform or at least keep pace with the rest of Australia’s markets in the coming years (especially on the eve of the 2032 Olympics).
Sources: Recent market reports and data from Domain, CoreLogic/ABS, SQM Research, Knight Frank and CBRE, Queensland government, and specialist analyses propertyupdate.com.au cbre.com.au assets.cushmanwakefield.com qro.qld.gov.au qro.qld.gov.au propertyupdate.com.au abc.net.au, among others, as cited above.
