The Gold Coast’s iconic skyline and beaches make it a magnet for buyers and renters. In 2025 the local property market is expected to roar ahead – analysts predict double-digit growth for houses and strong gains for units realestate.com.au propertybuyer.com.au. This report examines residential and commercial sectors in depth, with trends in demand, prices, yields and demographics; plus forecasts to 2030, infrastructure projects, top suburbs, migration patterns, lifestyle drivers, and policy impacts.
Residential Market Overview
The Gold Coast housing market is firing on all cylinders. Strong employment growth (health, education, tourism) and rising migration are driving demand for all home types blog.empirelegal.com.au propertybuyer.com.au. Over the last 2–3 years many suburbs have seen 15–25% capital growth. For example, Mermaid Beach houses jumped ~25% in two years propertybuyer.com.au. This demand has outpaced new supply (land is scarce between ocean and hinterland nortonsrealestate.com), pushing prices up. The median house price is now about $1.17M (second-highest in Australia) australianconveyancer.com.au, and a leading forecaster (Propertyology) predicts an additional 10–13% rise in 2025 realestate.com.au. Even “entry-level” areas are heating up: fringe suburbs like Pimpama, Coomera and Ormeau (medians ~$600–800K) grew ~16–20% recently propertybuyer.com.au nortonsrealestate.com, and are forecast +5–7% in 2025 propertybuyer.com.au. In short, the Gold Coast’s housing demand far exceeds supply, and prices are expected to climb steadily through the decade propertybuyer.com.au nortonsrealestate.com.
- Net Migration: Queensland as a whole saw ~75,000 overseas migrants and ~30,000 interstate arrivals in the year to June 2024 blog.empirelegal.com.au blog.empirelegal.com.au. The Gold Coast won the largest share in Qld – gaining ~14,500 overseas migrants in 2023 qgso.qld.gov.au. Younger skilled migrants (ages 20–34) and families are flocking in blog.empirelegal.com.au, often choosing the Coast over more expensive Sydney/Melbourne. This influx of workers and students boosts rental demand, especially in coastal and suburban areas.
- Buyer Demographics: The market now attracts both young and older buyers. Interstate migrants from NSW/VIC (tired of high prices or seeking lifestyle) and expats/investors are big buyers australianconveyancer.com.au nortonsrealestate.com. First-home buyers benefit from government incentives (see below), helping them enter via entry-level suburbs or apartments. Retirees and “sea-changers” also move here, drawn by the climate and services propertybuyer.com.au nortonsrealestate.com. Data show many upgraders from big cities (downsizing in Sydney to buy a larger GC home) australianconveyancer.com.au. In sum, a mix of families, downsizers, students, and investors are fueling demand.
- Price Trends: After modest dips in 2022, Gold Coast house prices have rebounded strongly. In the past year GC housing grew ~9% vs ~8.5% nationally australianconveyancer.com.au. Luxury segments (waterfront and new apartments) outperform even more. Leading analysts expect continued growth: 2025 forecasts run from +7% (conservative) to +13% realestate.com.au propertybuyer.com.au. Beyond 2025, predictions vary: one model (PRD) projects the median house soaring to ~$2.7M by 2030 (doubling current levels) choicehomes.com.au, while others (PropTrack) warn of slower but still solid gains choicehomes.com.au.
- Rental Yields and Vacancies: Strong rents and tight vacancy rates underpin the residential market. The Gold Coast’s average gross rental yield is about 4–4.5% for houses and ~5% for units nortonsrealestate.com – higher than Sydney/Brisbane. In some growth suburbs (e.g. Coomera, Labrador, Pimpama) house yields reach 4.5–5% nortonsrealestate.com nortonsrealestate.com. Units near the coast or student hubs often yield >5%. Rental vacancy is extremely low – around 1–1.3% overall nortonsrealestate.com (0.5% in popular family suburbs like Ormeau nortonsrealestate.com). This undersupply means properties rent almost immediately and landlords can raise rents. For investors, this boosts cash flow while the asset appreciates.
Commercial Real Estate
Gold Coast commercial property is also buzzing, driven by local economic growth and tourism. Key sectors:
- Retail & Hospitality: New mixed-use developments are reshaping retail. Large projects like the Pacific Fair expansion (4-tower $2B apartment-hotel) will add floorspace from 2025 realestate.com.au. Retailers and restaurants are thriving on tourist and local spending. Analysts note the sector is evolving to more experiential retail and hospitality (beachfront dining, events) rather than traditional malls ridgelinecommercialrealty.com.au. The booming visitor numbers (hotels and holiday rentals) keep demand high, especially in areas like Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.
- Office: Gold Coast’s office market is very tight. Vacancies are among the lowest in Australia (~6.5% in late 2024 cbre.com.au). New builds are scarce (developers cite high construction costs), so existing offices command rising rents. In fact, prime office rents jumped ~10% in 2024 cbre.com.au. With major employers (health, education, government) expanding on the Coast, demand remains strong. Overall, limited new supply and continued job growth suggest office rents and values will keep rising modestly.
- Industrial: Demand for warehousing and light industrial space is strong, fueled by e-commerce, logistics and local manufacturing. Vacancy is extremely low (often below 2%) as businesses expand. Industry experts report sharp rental growth and investment interest in Gold Coast industrial parks ridgelinecommercialrealty.com.au. New projects (e.g. Coomera commercial precinct, auto mall) are under development to catch up. This industrial boom is a bright spot in the commercial market.
2025–2030 Forecast
Analysts overwhelmingly expect Gold Coast real estate to keep appreciating through 2030, though the pace may moderate over time. Key forecasts and scenarios include:
- 2025 Outlook: Virtually all forecasters predict healthy gains in 2025. Propertyology and Realestate.com.au cite +10–13% house price growth realestate.com.au, driven by ongoing migration and improving affordability. A buyers’ agency study lists minimum 2025 growth of 6–10% for various suburbs propertybuyer.com.au propertybuyer.com.au (see table below). Even conservative estimates of 4–6% would beat inflation and support robust investment returns.
- Mid-2020s: If interest rates ease (markets bet on ~1% in cuts by 2026 realestate.com.au abc.net.au) and migration stays high, double-digit growth could persist into 2026–27. Infill development and new road/light rail links will open up more areas (e.g. Burleigh/Robina), broadening demand. Home prices might slow slightly as supply catches up, but strong local jobs and lifestyle appeal argue against any bust.
- By 2030: Long-range projections vary. A bullish forecast by PRD Research sees median house rising to ~$2.7M by 2030 choicehomes.com.au (implying >100% growth from 2024). Even a moderate scenario – say 5% annual growth from 2026 onward – would put medians well above $1.5M by 2030. Importantly, all analysts agree Gold Coast will remain one of Australia’s top performers. As PropTrack notes, growth likely slows from pandemic-era highs choicehomes.com.au, but low supply and steady demand ensure positive appreciation through the decade.
Table: Selected suburb performance and 2025 forecasts (houses & units) propertybuyer.com.au propertybuyer.com.au
| Suburb (Type) | 24‑month Growth | 2025 Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Mermaid Beach (Houses) | ~+25% propertybuyer.com.au | +8–10% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Broadbeach Waters (H) | ~+22% propertybuyer.com.au | +8–10% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Sanctuary Cove (H) | ~+20% propertybuyer.com.au | +7–9% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Pimpama (H) | ~+18–20% propertybuyer.com.au | +6–7% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Coomera (H) | ~+17–19% propertybuyer.com.au | +6–7% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Ormeau (H) | ~+16–18% propertybuyer.com.au | +5–6% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Mermaid Beach (Units) | +25% propertybuyer.com.au | +7–8% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Broadbeach (Units) | +22% propertybuyer.com.au | +6–7% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Surfers Paradise (Units) | +20% propertybuyer.com.au | +5–6% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Southport (Units) | +18% propertybuyer.com.au | +5–6% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Labrador (Units) | +16% propertybuyer.com.au | +5–6% propertybuyer.com.au |
| Palm Beach (Units) | +19% propertybuyer.com.au | +6–7% propertybuyer.com.au |
Infrastructure & Development
Major public and private projects will reshape the Gold Coast over the next few years, boosting property values along new corridors propertybuyer.com.au nortonsrealestate.com:
- Light Rail Stage 3 & 4: Stage 3 (Broadbeach–Burleigh) is now complete, and Stage 4 (extension to Coolangatta/Tweed) is slated for 2025–2030. This will link the entire Coast by tram, spurring urban renewal along the route propertybuyer.com.au nortonsrealestate.com. Suburbs on the new line (e.g. Burleigh, Palm Beach) should see rent and price lifts.
- Pacific Motorway Upgrade: The $1.2 billion M1 upgrade (Nicholson Street to Coomera) is ongoing, reducing commute times to Brisbane nortonsrealestate.com. Better connectivity makes inland suburbs (Ormeau, Coomera) more attractive, supporting growth there.
- Health & Education Hubs: A $1.3B new Gold Coast University Hospital (Coomera) opens soon nortonsrealestate.com, drawing workers and services to the north. Griffith University and Bond University are also expanding, sustaining rental demand in Southport and Robina.
- Olympics 2032: As Brisbane 2032 approaches, the Gold Coast will benefit from “lasting legacy” investments nortonsrealestate.com. Plans include an Olympic Athlete Village at Robina (to be converted to housing) and upgraded sports venues on the Coast. Broad infrastructure funding will enhance roads, public transport and utilities – all positives for property values.
- Other Projects: Major precincts are under development: Coomera Town Centre, the $400M Broadbeach cultural/retail precinct, and private resorts. Together these create new jobs and amenity. City planning targets ~158,000 new homes on the Gold Coast by 2046 abc.net.au (20% of SEQ’s 900k‑home plan), meaning council schemes will prioritize diverse housing.
Top Suburbs for Investment
The best suburbs depend on budget and strategy. Experts divide them into entry-level (growth corridors) and premium (coastal and luxury) areas nortonsrealestate.com nortonsrealestate.com:
- Entry-Level/Growth Corridors: Pimpama, Coomera, Ormeau, Pacific Pines and Upper Coomera – median house ~$600–800K nortonsrealestate.com. These inland suburbs offer ~4–5% yields and strong capital growth thanks to new infrastructure (train station at Pimpama, shopping centres, etc.) nortonsrealestate.com. Southport and Labrador (close to hospitals and university) also have affordable units under $500K and yields ~5–6% nortonsrealestate.com. Investors targeting cash flow and first-home buyers should watch these areas.
- Premium Coastal: Mermaid Beach, Main Beach, Broadbeach Waters, Sanctuary Cove, Burleigh Heads, Palm Beach – blue-chip oceanfront or waterfront communities nortonsrealestate.com. Median prices here exceed $1.2–1.5M. Despite lower yields (~3–4% nortonsrealestate.com), they boast exceptional long-term growth (e.g. Mermaid Beach houses grew ~25% over 2022–24 nortonsrealestate.com). Land here is scarce, so values tend to compound. High-end units in Surfers or Broadbeach (many over $500K) are also hot, driven by downsizers and overseas investors nortonsrealestate.com.
- Sunshine Suburbs: Burleigh, Palm Beach and Coolangatta continue to draw lifestyle buyers with cafes, schools and beaches nortonsrealestate.com. These established areas have moderate current growth but strong potential as demand keeps rising. Bundall and Ashmore offer a mix of affordability and amenity near the city center, so are also recommended by agents.
Population & Migration Trends
The region’s population boom underpins all real estate trends. Key points:
- Rapid Growth: Gold Coast population is ~720,000 (mid-2024) and rising. SEQ planning projects +388,000 residents by 2046 just for GC goldcoast.qld.gov.au abc.net.au. Net migration is the main driver.
- Overseas Migrants: In the year to mid-2024, Queensland gained ~75,000 overseas migrants blog.empirelegal.com.au – many settling on the Coast. Most are young workers or students, boosting demand for rentals and apartments blog.empirelegal.com.au. The Gold Coast had the highest overseas inflow in Qld (14,530 in 2023) qgso.qld.gov.au.
- Interstate Movers: Queensland saw ~30,000 net interstate movers (2023-24) blog.empirelegal.com.au – the largest net gain of any state. Reasons include lifestyle appeal, cheaper housing than Sydney/Melb, and WFH flexibility blog.empirelegal.com.au. Anecdotally, 15,300 people left capital cities for regional Qld in 2023 australianconveyancer.com.au, many heading to the Coast.
- Aging & Families: Baby boomers continue relocating here for retirement, while young families seek affordable housing and schools. The result is smaller household sizes and more dwellings needed per capita abc.net.au, worsening tightness unless new homes keep pace.
Lifestyle Drivers
Buyers and renters are motivated by quality-of-life factors nortonsrealestate.com:
- Climate & Beaches: The Gold Coast’s 300+ sunny days, surfing beaches and parks are major attractions. Outdoor lifestyles (swimming, golf, marinas) draw people from cooler or more congested cities.
- Amenities: Excellent dining, shopping and entertainment (e.g. Star Casino, Pacific Fair) make the coast feel cosmopolitan. These attract professionals and families who want big-city comforts with a relaxed pace.
- Health & Education: World-class facilities (Gold Coast University Hospital, private hospitals, Griffith University, Bond University) mean even those not working in tourism can find rewarding careers locally. This social infrastructure keeps professionals living on the Coast, not commuting away.
- Events & Image: Sports teams (Titans NRL, GC Suns AFL, Surfers NRL bid) and events (GC600, festivals) add vibrancy. International exposure (e.g. hosting big conventions, upcoming Commonwealth Youth Games) keeps the city in the spotlight, fueling confidence.
In summary, the Gold Coast’s blend of sun, surf and urban growth continues to drive buyer interest nortonsrealestate.com nortonsrealestate.com. Even during economic slowdowns, its lifestyle cachet and net immigration tend to prop up prices.
Government Policy & Interest Rates
A few policy changes and macro factors will influence the market:
- Interest Rates: Australia’s cash rate peaked at 4.35% in 2023. As of late 2024, markets expect cuts – possibly totaling ~1% over 2025–26 realestate.com.au abc.net.au. Cheaper borrowing will spur more homebuyers and investors, especially after years of rate-induced caution realestate.com.au abc.net.au. However, the RBA has stressed that rate cuts will depend on inflation; a quick drop is not guaranteed.
- First-Home Policies: Queensland offers grants and concessions. The state’s First Home Owner Grant provides $15K (or $30K in some regions) for new builds qro.qld.gov.au. From May 1, 2025 Queensland will eliminate stamp duty on new homes (and suitable vacant land) for first-time buyers abc.net.au (“Duty Break”). These incentives reduce upfront costs for FHBs, likely boosting demand in the new-home market.
- Housing Targets: The Queensland Government’s SEQ Regional Plan mandates ~900,000 new homes by 2046 (158,000 on the Gold Coast) abc.net.au. Local councils must adjust zoning to allow higher density and “missing middle” housing. In the near term, reforms to speed approvals could help, but critics note actual building remains behind targets blog.empirelegal.com.au.
- Taxes & Supply: There is discussion (though no national policy yet) of things like vacancy taxes or changes to foreign investment rules. For now, the biggest supply-side factor remains planning and construction bottlenecks (red tape, materials/labor shortages) blog.empirelegal.com.au.
Overall, policy tailwinds (rate cuts, grants, Olympics) support the market, but supply constraints and affordability concerns persist. Investors should watch budget announcements closely for any new housing measures.
Conclusion
The Gold Coast property market in 2025 is poised for continued strength across both residential and commercial sectors. A perfect storm of factors – surging population, record-low vacancies, tight supply, improving infrastructure, and lifestyle appeal – is driving solid growth in prices and rents. While high-end coastal suburbs lead the charge, even mid-market and fringe areas are lifting rapidly. As one report put it, the Gold Coast is transitioning to a “maturing city” economy (health, education, construction) that underpins a more stable, long-term real estate upswing propertybuyer.com.au nortonsrealestate.com.
Key Takeaways: Gold Coast housing demand remains very strong blog.empirelegal.com.au, with prices up sharply and rental yields high (around 4–5%) nortonsrealestate.com. Commercial real estate is robust (offices tight, industrial booming) ridgelinecommercialrealty.com.au cbre.com.au. Infrastructure projects (light rail, hospitals, Olympics) will improve access and add amenities nortonsrealestate.com. Forecasts suggest 2025–27 growth will outstrip many other regions realestate.com.au choicehomes.com.au, before leveling to steadier gains toward 2030. For investors and buyers, the focus areas include both coastal lifestyle suburbs (Mermaid Beach, Palm Beach, Burleigh) and growth corridors (Coomera, Pimpama, Ormeau) nortonsrealestate.com nortonsrealestate.com. Government incentives and future rate cuts are likely to further bolster activity. In short, the Gold Coast is widely tipped to remain one of Australia’s hottest property markets through 2025 and beyond realestate.com.au australianconveyancer.com.au.
Sources: Official forecasts, market analysts, government stats and industry reports (see citations). All data are drawn from up-to-date Australian sources realestate.com.au blog.empirelegal.com.au nortonsrealestate.com.
